ŁKS Łódź 3-2 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as ŁKS Łódź face Radomiak Radom.

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Analysis

Radomiak Radom make the trip to Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz to face ŁKS Łódź in Ekstraklasa (matchday 28). The match kicks off on Sunday 14 April 2024 at 12:30 UK time.

Form

ŁKS Łódź (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, ŁKS Łódź have posted 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Radomiak Radom have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Radomiak Radom edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 7 Oct 2023, ended ŁKS Łódź 0–3 Radomiak Radom — a Radomiak Radom win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

ŁKS Łódź goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

Radomiak Radom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ŁKS Łódź 48% versus Radomiak Radom 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ŁKS Łódź 52% | Radomiak Radom 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects ŁKS Łódź 1.35 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ŁKS Łódź attack 0.833 / defence 1.389 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.033 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.076. ŁKS Łódź's defence rating of 1.389 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Radomiak Radom's projected output up. Data: built from ŁKS Łódź's last 27 games and Radomiak Radom's last 61.

Result probabilities: ŁKS Łódź 31% | Draw 30% | Radomiak Radom 39%. Fair-value odds: ŁKS Łódź 3.23 | Draw 3.38 | Radomiak Radom 2.53. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.35 / 1.54) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Radomiak Radom are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (ŁKS Łódź's last 10 home games and Radomiak Radom's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: ŁKS Łódź 60% (last 10 home games) | Radomiak Radom 40% (last 10 away games).

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