Jagiellonia 1-3 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jagiellonia at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cracovia Krakow make the trip to Stadion Miejski to face Jagiellonia in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Sunday 14 April 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Jagiellonia (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jagiellonia's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski.
Cracovia Krakow have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L D D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Jagiellonia's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Cracovia Krakow's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Jagiellonia, 2 for Cracovia Krakow and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2023, ended 4–2 with Jagiellonia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Jagiellonia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Cracovia Krakow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jagiellonia 70% versus Cracovia Krakow 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 61% | Cracovia Krakow 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.97 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.480 / defence 0.928 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.813 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.442 / away 1.081. Jagiellonia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.480 — their λ of 1.97 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 61 Jagiellonia games / 61 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 62% | Draw 25% | Cracovia Krakow 13%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 1.61 | Draw 4.00 | Cracovia Krakow 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Jagiellonia (62%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jagiellonia as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Jagiellonia 50% | Cracovia Krakow 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 62% | Draw 25% | Cracovia Krakow 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 50% | xG Jagiellonia 1.97 / Cracovia Krakow 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.480 / def 0.928 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.813 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.442 / away 1.081 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Cracovia Krakow xG
50%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 14 April 2024 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow?
Jagiellonia 1 - 3 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 62% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 13% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (5 meetings): Jagiellonia 1W | Draws 2 | Cracovia Krakow 2W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Jagiellonia's attacking strength (1.48x league average) is weighed against Cracovia Krakow's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.97. Flip it around — Cracovia Krakow's attack (0.81x) against Jagiellonia's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
62%
1.60
25%
3.99
13%
7.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
2.79
0.82
Cracovia Krakow xG
1.60
62%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
7.96
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
14%
7.19
Win to Nil
28%
3.63
2%
57.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 9.9 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 0.82 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 61 outings, Jagiellonia have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 24W 21D 16L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cracovia Krakow's form line: 17W 24D 20L from 61 games, 1.23 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-D. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Jagiellonia against 1.23 for Cracovia Krakow. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Jagiellonia have posted 2.00 PPG from 30 outings (18W 6D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.52 PPG overall — Jagiellonia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 6W 12D 12L from 30 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.25 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 24W 21D 16L in their last 61 games (1.52 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 17W 24D 20L in their last 61 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Jagiellonia's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 2.00 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Jagiellonia or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jagiellonia have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jagiellonia won 5-2 on 10 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jagiellonia have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Cracovia Krakow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jagiellonia
4
Draws
4
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow?
From 10 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 2, Cracovia Krakow have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 0-0 Jagiellonia.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 67%, Cracovia Krakow 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Jagiellonia) and 30% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Cracovia Krakow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Jagiellonia's games and 50% of Cracovia Krakow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Jagiellonia's recent games and 30% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cracovia Krakow cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Jagiellonia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow beat Jagiellonia 1-3 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 28, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.97 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.82 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Jagiellonia fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Cracovia Krakow outscored their 0.82 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.48 / defence 0.93 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.81 / defence 0.93, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 62% | Draw 25% | Cracovia Krakow 13%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Cracovia Krakow win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 61%, Cracovia Krakow 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jagiellonia 1.52 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cracovia Krakow win broke the near-deadlock. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.