Gornik Zabrze 0-1 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Legia Warszawa travel to Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla to take on Gornik Zabrze. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 March 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Gornik Zabrze have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gornik Zabrze at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Legia Warszawa — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Legia Warszawa have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Legia Warszawa are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Gornik Zabrze have won 1, Legia Warszawa 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Gornik Zabrze trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Legia Warszawa trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gornik Zabrze 64% versus Legia Warszawa 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gornik Zabrze 61% | Legia Warszawa 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 1.02 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 0.906 / defence 1.082 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.067 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.242 / away 1.120. Data: 56 Gornik Zabrze games / 56 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 29% | Draw 28% | Legia Warszawa 43%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | Legia Warszawa 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Legia Warszawa as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 5.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Gornik Zabrze 60% | Legia Warszawa 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Mar 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 29% | Draw 28% | Legia Warszawa 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Gornik Zabrze 1.02 / Legia Warszawa 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 0.906 / def 1.082 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.067 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.242 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Legia Warszawa xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 4 March 2023 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What was the final score in Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa?
Gornik Zabrze 0 - 1 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 29% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa?
Record (3 meetings): Gornik Zabrze 1W | Draws 1 | Legia Warszawa 1W.
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa in?
Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Gornik Zabrze's attack rating (0.91) and Legia Warszawa's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Legia Warszawa's attack versus Gornik Zabrze's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
29%
3.42
28%
3.58
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
2.31
1.29
Legia Warszawa xG
3.42
29%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
8%
12.46
15%
6.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 12.8 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.29 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, Gornik Zabrze have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 19W 15D 22L record — L-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Legia Warszawa's form line: 25W 11D 20L from 56 games, 1.54 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-D. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gornik Zabrze on 1.29 PPG, Legia Warszawa on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Gornik Zabrze have posted 1.29 PPG from 28 outings (9W 9D 10L).
On the road, Legia Warszawa have gone 8W 7D 13L from 28 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.54 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Legia Warszawa's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.43 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gornik Zabrze have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 19W 15D 22L in their last 56 games (1.29 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 25W 11D 20L in their last 56 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Gornik Zabrze's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 1.29 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Gornik Zabrze's record when hosting Legia Warszawa specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Gornik Zabrze
3
Draws
5
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Gornik Zabrze have won 2, Legia Warszawa have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Legia Warszawa 1-1 Gornik Zabrze.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gornik Zabrze 57%, Legia Warszawa 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Gornik Zabrze) and 50% (Legia Warszawa).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gornik Zabrze play Legia Warszawa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Gornik Zabrze's games and 54% of Legia Warszawa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Gornik Zabrze's recent games and 50% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Gornik Zabrze have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Legia Warszawa edge out Gornik Zabrze 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Gornik Zabrze 0-1 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 23, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.02 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.29 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gornik Zabrze fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 0.91 / defence 1.08 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.07 / defence 0.90, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 29% | Draw 28% | Legia Warszawa 43%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 61%, Legia Warszawa 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.29 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.