Gornik Zabrze 3-2 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Legia Warszawa travel to Arena Zabrze to take on Gornik Zabrze. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 November 2021, 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Gornik Zabrze have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gornik Zabrze at Arena Zabrze this season: 3W 1D 3L from 7 home games — 1.43 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Legia Warszawa — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Legia Warszawa have posted 1W 0D 5L from 6 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Gornik Zabrze are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Gornik Zabrze trading profile (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Legia Warszawa trading profile (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gornik Zabrze 50% versus Legia Warszawa 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gornik Zabrze 42% | Legia Warszawa 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 1.35 xG and Legia Warszawa 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 0.749 / defence 1.047 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.722 / defence 1.526. League average goals — home 1.183 / away 1.218. Gornik Zabrze's attack strength of 0.749 is below the league average — the 1.35 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Legia Warszawa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.526 — this is suppressing Gornik Zabrze's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Gornik Zabrze games / 12 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 46% | Draw 30% | Legia Warszawa 25%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Legia Warszawa 4.00. Gornik Zabrze hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Gornik Zabrze 29% | Legia Warszawa 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Arena Zabrze • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 46% | Draw 30% | Legia Warszawa 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Gornik Zabrze 1.35 / Legia Warszawa 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 0.749 / def 1.047 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.722 / def 1.526 | league avg home 1.183 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Legia Warszawa xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Arena Zabrze.
What was the final score in Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa?
Gornik Zabrze 3 - 2 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Arena Zabrze.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 46% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa in?
Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Gornik Zabrze's attack rating (0.75) and Legia Warszawa's defence rating (1.53), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Legia Warszawa's attack versus Gornik Zabrze's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
46%
2.19
30%
3.36
25%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
2.27
0.92
Legia Warszawa xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
4.08
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
18%
5.49
6%
15.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.8 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 0.92 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 12 outings, Gornik Zabrze have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 4W 3D 5L record — W-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Legia Warszawa's form line: 3W 0D 9L from 12 games, 0.75 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Gornik Zabrze are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Legia Warszawa.
Venue Form
On home soil, Gornik Zabrze have posted 1.67 PPG from 6 outings (3W 1D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Gornik Zabrze are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Legia Warszawa have gone 1W 0D 5L from 6 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gornik Zabrze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.00 scored and 1.83 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 4W 3D 5L in their last 12 games (1.25 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 3W 0D 9L in their last 12 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Gornik Zabrze's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 1.67 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Gornik Zabrze's record when hosting Legia Warszawa specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Gornik Zabrze
3
Draws
5
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Gornik Zabrze have won 2, Legia Warszawa have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Legia Warszawa 1-1 Gornik Zabrze.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gornik Zabrze see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Gornik Zabrze 17% BTTS, Legia Warszawa 50%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Gornik Zabrze and 50% for Legia Warszawa.
On the defensive side: Gornik Zabrze keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Gornik Zabrze have failed to score in 50% of games; Legia Warszawa in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gornik Zabrze play Legia Warszawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Gornik Zabrze's recent matches and 50% of Legia Warszawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Gornik Zabrze's recent games and 50% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Gornik Zabrze have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gornik Zabrze edge out Legia Warszawa 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gornik Zabrze beat Legia Warszawa 3-2 at Arena Zabrze, Regular Season - 15, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.35 xG and Legia Warszawa 0.92 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Gornik Zabrze beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Legia Warszawa outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 0.75 / defence 1.05 against Legia Warszawa attack 0.72 / defence 1.53, drawn from 13/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 46% | Draw 30% | Legia Warszawa 25%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 42%, Legia Warszawa 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Gornik Zabrze arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.75. That form edge translated into the three points. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.