Cracovia Krakow 2-0 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cracovia Krakow at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cracovia Krakow host Raków Częstochowa at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 October 2025 at 19:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Cracovia Krakow have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Raków Częstochowa stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Raków Częstochowa have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cracovia Krakow at 1.80 PPG versus Raków Częstochowa's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Cracovia Krakow, 1 for Raków Częstochowa and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Cracovia Krakow in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Raków Częstochowa in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 73% versus Raków Częstochowa 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 59% | Raków Częstochowa 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.33 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.977 / defence 0.893 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.929 / defence 0.834. League average goals — home 1.632 / away 1.240. Data: 44 Cracovia Krakow games / 44 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 43% | Draw 29% | Raków Częstochowa 28%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Raków Częstochowa 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cracovia Krakow are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cracovia Krakow 70% | Raków Częstochowa 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Oct 2025, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 43% | Draw 29% | Raków Częstochowa 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.33 / Raków Częstochowa 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.977 / def 0.893 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.929 / def 0.834 | league avg home 1.632 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Raków Częstochowa xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 19:15 on Saturday 18 October 2025 at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
Cracovia Krakow 2 - 0 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 43% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (7 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 3W | Draws 3 | Raków Częstochowa 1W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cracovia Krakow's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
43%
2.33
29%
3.48
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.36
1.03
Raków Częstochowa xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
15%
6.50
7%
13.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.9 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.03 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, Cracovia Krakow have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 19W 12D 13L record — D-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Raków Częstochowa's form line: 24W 11D 9L from 44 games, 1.89 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-W. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cracovia Krakow on 1.57 PPG, Raków Częstochowa on 1.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cracovia Krakow have posted 1.45 PPG from 22 outings (8W 8D 6L).
On the road, Raków Częstochowa have gone 13W 6D 3L from 22 away games — 2.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.43 scored and 0.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cracovia Krakow have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 19W 12D 13L in their last 44 games (1.57 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 24W 11D 9L in their last 44 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Raków Częstochowa's away record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.45 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 2.05 PPG.
Have Cracovia Krakow or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Sep 2022, when Cracovia Krakow won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cracovia Krakow's record when hosting Raków Częstochowa specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Cracovia Krakow
3
Draws
2
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa?
From 10 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 5, Raków Częstochowa have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 2-1 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Raków Częstochowa see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 77%, Raków Częstochowa 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Cracovia Krakow) and 27% (Raków Częstochowa).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa in 59%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Raków Częstochowa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 77% of Cracovia Krakow's recent matches and 32% of Raków Częstochowa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 27% of Raków Częstochowa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cracovia Krakow cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Raków Częstochowa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow beat Raków Częstochowa 2-0 at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego, Regular Season - 12, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.33 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.03 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Raków Częstochowa landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 0.98 / defence 0.89 against Raków Częstochowa attack 0.93 / defence 0.83, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 43% | Draw 29% | Raków Częstochowa 28%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 59%, Raków Częstochowa 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.57 PPG, Raków Częstochowa 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cracovia Krakow win broke the near-deadlock. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.