Viking 2-0 Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Viking at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Viking vs Kristiansund BK encounter.

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Match Analysis

Viking host Kristiansund BK at SR-Bank Arena in Eliteserien (matchday 14). Kick-off is Saturday 13 July 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Viking have gone 6W 3D 1L — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Viking have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Kristiansund BK stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Kristiansund BK's away record over their last 8 away games: 2W 2D 4L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Viking carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Viking's games and 62% of Kristiansund BK's (from Viking's last 10 home games and Kristiansund BK's last 8 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Viking, 1 for Kristiansund BK and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 31 Aug 2022, ended Viking 1–2 Kristiansund BK — a Kristiansund BK win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Viking trading profile (last 16 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Kristiansund BK trading profile (last 16 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 62% and Kristiansund BK 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Viking 69% | Kristiansund BK 50%). Note also that Kristiansund BK surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Viking recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 60% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 2.03 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.203 / defence 1.037 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.781 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.449. Kristiansund BK's attack rating of 0.781 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.17. Data: built from Viking's last 43 games and Kristiansund BK's last 14.

Result probabilities: Viking 57% | Draw 22% | Kristiansund BK 21%. Fair-value odds: Viking 1.76 | Draw 4.63 | Kristiansund BK 4.66. The model has a clear lean to Viking (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (2.03 / 1.17) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Viking at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Viking's last 10 home games and Kristiansund BK's last 8 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Viking 80% (last 10 home games) | Kristiansund BK 62% (last 8 away games).

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