KFUM Oslo 1-2 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Viking at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this KFUM Oslo vs Viking fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Viking make the trip to KFUM Arena to face KFUM Oslo in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 July 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
KFUM Oslo have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for KFUM Oslo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, KFUM Oslo have posted 0W 4D 2L at KFUM Arena — 0.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.67 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at KFUM Arena this season.
Viking's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Viking are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
KFUM Oslo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Viking goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — KFUM Oslo 67% and Viking 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KFUM Oslo 50% | Viking 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KFUM Oslo 1.00 xG and Viking 2.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KFUM Oslo attack 0.804 / defence 1.259 | Viking attack 1.117 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.504. Data: 12 KFUM Oslo games / 42 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KFUM Oslo 17% | Draw 20% | Viking 63%. Fair-value odds: KFUM Oslo 5.88 | Draw 5.00 | Viking 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Viking (63%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Viking as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: KFUM Oslo 67% | Viking 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KFUM Oslo vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: KFUM Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Jul 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KFUM Oslo 17% | Draw 20% | Viking 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 55% | xG KFUM Oslo 1.00 / Viking 2.11 • Poisson strength factors: KFUM Oslo attack 0.804 / def 1.259 | Viking attack 1.117 / def 0.901 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.504 • Poisson stance: Viking (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
KFUM Oslo xG
Expected Goals
2.11
Viking xG
55%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KFUM Oslo vs Viking kick off?
KFUM Oslo vs Viking kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 7 July 2024 at KFUM Arena.
What was the final score in KFUM Oslo vs Viking?
KFUM Oslo 1 - 2 Viking.
Where is KFUM Oslo vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at KFUM Arena.
What competition is KFUM Oslo vs Viking part of?
KFUM Oslo vs Viking is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win KFUM Oslo vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives KFUM Oslo a 17% chance of winning, Viking a 63% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in KFUM Oslo vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both KFUM Oslo and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will KFUM Oslo vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between KFUM Oslo and Viking?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are KFUM Oslo and Viking in?
KFUM Oslo (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Viking (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
KFUM Oslo's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Viking's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. Flip it around — Viking's attack (1.12x) against KFUM Oslo's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 2.11.
These ratings are built from 12/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.0%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
17%
5.92
20%
4.97
63%
1.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
KFUM Oslo xG
Total xG
3.11
2.11
Viking xG
5.92
17%
Home win
4.97
20%
Draw
1.59
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
12%
8.27
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
2%
48.98
23%
4.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 9.4 | 10.0 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KFUM Oslo vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are KFUM Oslo and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for KFUM Oslo and 2.11 for Viking, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for KFUM Oslo vs Viking?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
KFUM Oslo's recent record stands at 3W 6D 3L from 12 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for KFUM Oslo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Viking, meanwhile, have gone 6W 4D 2L across 12 games — 1.83 PPG, with L-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Viking by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over KFUM Oslo heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, KFUM Oslo have managed 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — 0.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.25 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Viking's away record stands at 2W 2D 1L across 5 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
KFUM Oslo are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.83 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KFUM Oslo have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KFUM Oslo
Blended
Viking
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KFUM Oslo and Viking in coming into this match?
KFUM Oslo have gone 3W 6D 3L in their last 12 games (1.25 PPG), while Viking have gone 6W 4D 2L in their last 12 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KFUM Oslo at home or Viking away?
Viking's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KFUM Oslo at home: 0.60 PPG; Viking away: 1.60 PPG.
Have KFUM Oslo or Viking been keeping clean sheets recently?
KFUM Oslo have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Viking in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since July 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KFUM Oslo have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Viking — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
KFUM Oslo
1
Draws
4
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KFUM Oslo and Viking?
From 5 meetings on record, KFUM Oslo have won 0, Viking have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did KFUM Oslo and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when KFUM Oslo 0-2 Viking.
Who has won more matches between KFUM Oslo and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
KFUM Oslo see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KFUM Oslo 60%, Viking 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for KFUM Oslo and 60% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: KFUM Oslo keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Viking in 40%; KFUM Oslo have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KFUM Oslo home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KFUM Oslo play Viking?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of KFUM Oslo's recent matches and 40% of Viking's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is KFUM Oslo vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of KFUM Oslo's matches and 60% of Viking's.
Do KFUM Oslo and Viking tend to score early?
KFUM Oslo have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Viking in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Viking edge out KFUM Oslo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat KFUM Oslo 1-2 at KFUM Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KFUM Oslo 1.00 xG and Viking 2.11 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KFUM Oslo attack 0.80 / defence 1.26 against Viking attack 1.12 / defence 0.90, drawn from 12/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KFUM Oslo 17% | Draw 20% | Viking 63%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KFUM Oslo 50%, Viking 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KFUM Oslo's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Viking's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.