Tromso 3-0 Fredrikstad – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fredrikstad at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tromso vs Fredrikstad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Romssa Arena plays host to Tromso versus Fredrikstad in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Wednesday 29 May 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Tromso's overall Eliteserien record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Tromso's home record at Romssa Arena: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Tromso lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tromso 1.16 xG and Fredrikstad 2.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tromso attack 1.172 / defence 1.133 | Fredrikstad attack 1.189 / defence 0.750. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 1.534. Fredrikstad's defence strength of 0.750 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 39 Tromso games / 10 Fredrikstad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tromso 21% | Draw 21% | Fredrikstad 58%. Fair-value odds: Tromso 4.76 | Draw 4.76 | Fredrikstad 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Fredrikstad (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.16 / 2.07) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fredrikstad as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tromso vs Fredrikstad | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Romssa Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 May 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tromso 21% | Draw 21% | Fredrikstad 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 60% | xG Tromso 1.16 / Fredrikstad 2.07 • Poisson strength factors: Tromso attack 1.172 / def 1.133 | Fredrikstad attack 1.189 / def 0.750 | league avg home 1.324 / away 1.534 • Poisson stance: Fredrikstad (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Tromso xG
Expected Goals
2.07
Fredrikstad xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tromso vs Fredrikstad kick off?
Tromso vs Fredrikstad kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 29 May 2024 at Romssa Arena.
What was the final score in Tromso vs Fredrikstad?
Tromso 3 - 0 Fredrikstad.
Where is Tromso vs Fredrikstad being played?
The match is being played at Romssa Arena.
What competition is Tromso vs Fredrikstad part of?
Tromso vs Fredrikstad is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Tromso vs Fredrikstad?
Our statistical model gives Tromso a 21% chance of winning, Fredrikstad a 58% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Fredrikstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tromso vs Fredrikstad?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Tromso and Fredrikstad will score (BTTS).
Will Tromso vs Fredrikstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Fredrikstad?
Record (1 meetings): Tromso 0W | Draws 1 | Fredrikstad 0W.
What form are Tromso and Fredrikstad in?
Tromso (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Tromso home split: 2.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Tromso's attack at 1.17x the league average against Fredrikstad's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fredrikstad's attack (1.19x) against Tromso's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 2.07.
These ratings are built from 39/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fredrikstad Win
21%
4.79
21%
4.77
58%
1.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
0 – 2
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Tromso xG
Total xG
3.23
2.07
Fredrikstad xG
4.79
21%
Home win
4.77
21%
Draw
1.72
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
13%
7.90
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
3%
37.84
18%
5.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 8.2 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tromso vs Fredrikstad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Tromso and Fredrikstad expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Tromso and 2.07 for Fredrikstad, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Tromso vs Fredrikstad?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tromso
Pre-Season
Fredrikstad
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tromso won 4-0 on 15 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tromso have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Fredrikstad — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Tromso
2
Draws
0
Fredrikstad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Fredrikstad?
From 5 meetings on record, Tromso have won 3, Fredrikstad have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Tromso and Fredrikstad last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Tromso 4-0 Fredrikstad.
Who has won more matches between Tromso and Fredrikstad?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tromso home games / Fredrikstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Tromso run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Fredrikstad.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tromso beat Fredrikstad 3-0 at Romssa Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 1.16 xG and Fredrikstad 2.07 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Tromso beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fredrikstad landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 1.17 / defence 1.13 against Fredrikstad attack 1.19 / defence 0.75, drawn from 39/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tromso 21% | Draw 21% | Fredrikstad 58%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Tromso win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.