Rosenborg 1-1 Fredrikstad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fredrikstad at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rosenborg vs Fredrikstad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fredrikstad make the trip to Lerkendal Stadion to face Rosenborg in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Sunday 2 June 2024 at 18:15 UTC.
Form
Rosenborg (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Rosenborg's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Lerkendal Stadion this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.22 xG and Fredrikstad 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.008 / defence 1.002 | Fredrikstad attack 1.030 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.528. Data: 40 Rosenborg games / 11 Fredrikstad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 29% | Draw 25% | Fredrikstad 46%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 3.45 | Draw 4.00 | Fredrikstad 2.17. Fredrikstad hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fredrikstad as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fredrikstad if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Fredrikstad | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Jun 2024, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 29% | Draw 25% | Fredrikstad 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Rosenborg 1.22 / Fredrikstad 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.008 / def 1.002 | Fredrikstad attack 1.030 / def 0.888 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.528 • Poisson stance: Fredrikstad (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Fredrikstad xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Fredrikstad kick off?
Rosenborg vs Fredrikstad kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 2 June 2024 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Fredrikstad?
Rosenborg 1 - 1 Fredrikstad.
Where is Rosenborg vs Fredrikstad being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Fredrikstad part of?
Rosenborg vs Fredrikstad is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Fredrikstad?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 29% chance of winning, Fredrikstad a 46% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fredrikstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Fredrikstad?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Rosenborg and Fredrikstad will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Fredrikstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Fredrikstad?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rosenborg and Fredrikstad in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Rosenborg home split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Rosenborg's attack at 1.01x the league average against Fredrikstad's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fredrikstad's attack (1.03x) against Rosenborg's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from 40/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fredrikstad Win
29%
3.40
25%
4.02
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.79
1.58
Fredrikstad xG
3.40
29%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
21%
4.84
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
6%
16.43
14%
7.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.7 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Fredrikstad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Fredrikstad expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.58 for Fredrikstad, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Fredrikstad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Pre-Season
Fredrikstad
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 27 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Rosenborg have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 4-0 on 27 Jul 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Fredrikstad — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Rosenborg
2
Draws
0
Fredrikstad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Fredrikstad?
From 5 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 3, Fredrikstad have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Fredrikstad last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2026, when Rosenborg 4-0 Fredrikstad.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Fredrikstad?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Fredrikstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Rosenborg and Fredrikstad share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg and Fredrikstad finished level at 1-1 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.22 xG and Fredrikstad 1.58 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.01 / defence 1.00 against Fredrikstad attack 1.03 / defence 0.89, drawn from 40/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 29% | Draw 25% | Fredrikstad 46%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.