Stromsgodset 1-1 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stromsgodset at 52% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
ODD Ballklubb make the trip to Marienlyst Stadion to face Stromsgodset in Eliteserien (matchday 11). The match kicks off on Sunday 2 June 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Stromsgodset have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Stromsgodset's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
ODD Ballklubb's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, ODD Ballklubb have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Stromsgodset, 1.20 for ODD Ballklubb — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Stromsgodset's last 10 home games and ODD Ballklubb's last 10 away games) — Stromsgodset have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, ODD Ballklubb in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record in our data favours Stromsgodset, who have won 5 of the 8 H2H matches we hold against ODD Ballklubb — ODD Ballklubb have 1 win, with 2 draws.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Oct 2023, ended Stromsgodset 3–1 ODD Ballklubb — a Stromsgodset win.
The head-to-head data gives Stromsgodset an edge — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Data
Stromsgodset goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
ODD Ballklubb goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 48% versus ODD Ballklubb 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 55% | ODD Ballklubb 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.40 xG and ODD Ballklubb 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 0.966 / defence 0.760 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.654 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.523. ODD Ballklubb's attack rating of 0.654 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.76. Stromsgodset have a tight defence (rating 0.760), which is pulling ODD Ballklubb's projected output down. Data: built from Stromsgodset's last 40 games and ODD Ballklubb's last 41.
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 52% | Draw 27% | ODD Ballklubb 20%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 1.91 | Draw 3.64 | ODD Ballklubb 4.95. Stromsgodset hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stromsgodset as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Stromsgodset 5 wins from 8 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stromsgodset if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — low conviction — though recent form (Stromsgodset's last 10 home games and ODD Ballklubb's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Stromsgodset 60% (last 10 home games) | ODD Ballklubb 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 11 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 2 June 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 52% | Draw 27% | ODD Ballklubb 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Stromsgodset 1.40 / ODD Ballklubb 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 0.966 / def 0.760 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.654 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.523 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
0.76
ODD Ballklubb xG
40%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb FAQs
What time does Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 2 June 2024 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb?
Stromsgodset 1 - 1 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 11) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 52% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Stromsgodset's attack at 0.97x the league average against ODD Ballklubb's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — ODD Ballklubb's attack (0.65x) against Stromsgodset's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from Stromsgodset's last 40 games and ODD Ballklubb's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
52%
1.91
27%
3.64
20%
4.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
2.16
0.76
ODD Ballklubb xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
4.95
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
25%
4.07
5%
20.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 12.2 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 8.6 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 0.76 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Stromsgodset's recent record stands at 22W 9D 29L from 60 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five.
ODD Ballklubb, meanwhile, have gone 23W 14D 23L across 60 games — 1.38 PPG, with W-L-L-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Stromsgodset against 1.38 for ODD Ballklubb. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Stromsgodset have managed 15W 3D 12L from their last 30 home games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
ODD Ballklubb's away record stands at 8W 9D 13L across their last 30 away games, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stromsgodset come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.42 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Current Season
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
Stromsgodset (Home) vs ODD Ballklubb (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stromsgodset
Current Season
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
❓ Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb Form FAQs
What form are Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 22W 9D 29L in their last 60 games (1.25 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 23W 14D 23L in their last 60 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Stromsgodset's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.60 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to June 2020 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 28 July 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: ODD Ballklubb won ODD Ballklubb 5-1 Stromsgodset on 6 Nov 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stromsgodset have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against ODD Ballklubb — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Stromsgodset
3
Draws
2
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Stromsgodset have won 5, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 July 2024: ODD Ballklubb 2-0 Stromsgodset.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb?
Stromsgodset have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 57%, ODD Ballklubb 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Stromsgodset and 57% for ODD Ballklubb. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ODD Ballklubb in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Stromsgodset's games and 53% of ODD Ballklubb's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Stromsgodset's matches and 57% of ODD Ballklubb's.
Do Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Stromsgodset's recent matches and 60% of ODD Ballklubb's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 11, as Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.40 xG and ODD Ballklubb 0.76 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 0.97 / defence 0.76 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.65 / defence 1.08, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 52% | Draw 27% | ODD Ballklubb 20%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 55%, ODD Ballklubb 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stromsgodset 1.25 PPG, ODD Ballklubb 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.