Stabaek 0-1 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stabaek at 37%, yet in-form Viking provide a compelling counter-argument — this Stabaek vs Viking fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Nadderud Stadion plays host to Stabaek versus Viking in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 16 July 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Stabaek (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stabaek's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 1L across 7 games at Nadderud Stadion this term (1.71 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.71 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Stabaek are significantly better at Nadderud Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Viking have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Viking are 1.00 PPG clear of Stabaek in recent Eliteserien fixtures (2.20 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Stabaek lead 0W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.5 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 1–3 with Viking winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Stabaek goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Viking goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stabaek 54% and Viking 77% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stabaek 62% | Viking 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.36 xG and Viking 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.796 / defence 0.964 | Viking attack 1.149 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.665 / away 1.223. Stabaek's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 1.36 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 13 Stabaek games / 43 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stabaek 37% | Draw 26% | Viking 37%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Viking 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stabaek 43% | Viking 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jul 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 37% | Draw 26% | Viking 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Stabaek 1.36 / Viking 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.796 / def 0.964 | Viking attack 1.149 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.665 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Viking xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stabaek vs Viking kick off?
Stabaek vs Viking kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 16 July 2023 at Nadderud Stadion.
What was the final score in Stabaek vs Viking?
Stabaek 0 - 1 Viking.
Where is Stabaek vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Viking part of?
Stabaek vs Viking is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 37% chance of winning, Viking a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Stabaek and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Stabaek vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Viking?
Record (4 meetings): Stabaek 0W | Draws 3 | Viking 1W.
What form are Stabaek and Viking in?
Stabaek (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Viking (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Stabaek's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Viking's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — Viking's attack (1.15x) against Stabaek's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 13/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stabaek Win
37%
2.70
26%
3.82
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Stabaek xG
Total xG
2.72
1.35
Viking xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
10%
10.44
9%
10.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.2 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.35 for Viking, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 13 outings, Stabaek have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 4W 4D 5L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Viking's form line: 8W 2D 3L from 13 games, 2.00 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Viking are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stabaek.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Stabaek have posted 1.83 PPG from 6 outings (3W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Stabaek are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Viking have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stabaek are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 2.31 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking in 77%.
Last 13 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Blended
Viking
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stabaek and Viking in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 4W 4D 5L in their last 13 games (1.23 PPG), while Viking have gone 8W 2D 3L in their last 13 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Viking away?
Stabaek's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 1.83 PPG; Viking away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Stabaek or Viking been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stabaek have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Viking in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 August 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Viking go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stabaek have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Viking — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Stabaek
3
Draws
3
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Viking?
From 6 meetings on record, Stabaek have won 0, Viking have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 20 August 2023, when Viking 1-0 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 50% for Stabaek, 83% for Viking — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Stabaek) and 67% (Viking). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stabaek keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stabaek play Viking?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Stabaek's games and 83% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stabaek vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Stabaek's matches and 67% of Viking's.
Do Stabaek and Viking tend to score early?
Stabaek have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Viking in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Viking defy the odds to beat Stabaek 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Stabaek 0-1 at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.36 xG and Viking 1.35 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Stabaek fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.80 / defence 0.96 against Viking attack 1.15 / defence 1.03, drawn from 13/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 37% | Draw 26% | Viking 37%, with Stabaek to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Viking win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 62%, Viking 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Viking's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.23. Form held, and they took the win. Stabaek (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Viking (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.