Aalesund 0-3 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Aalesund at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Aalesund vs ODD Ballklubb fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 14 as Aalesund welcome ODD Ballklubb to Color Line Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 July 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Aalesund stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Aalesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aalesund's home record at Color Line Stadion: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Aalesund are significantly better at Color Line Stadion than their overall form suggests.
ODD Ballklubb — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ODD Ballklubb's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Aalesund) versus 1.00 (ODD Ballklubb). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Aalesund have won 1, ODD Ballklubb 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Aalesund trading profile (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
ODD Ballklubb trading profile (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aalesund 49% versus ODD Ballklubb 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aalesund 60% | ODD Ballklubb 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aalesund 1.30 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aalesund attack 0.852 / defence 1.099 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.845 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 1.665 / away 1.223. Data: 43 Aalesund games / 44 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aalesund 40% | Draw 28% | ODD Ballklubb 32%. Fair-value odds: Aalesund 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | ODD Ballklubb 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Aalesund at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aalesund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Aalesund 40% | ODD Ballklubb 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aalesund vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Color Line Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jul 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aalesund 40% | Draw 28% | ODD Ballklubb 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Aalesund 1.30 / ODD Ballklubb 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Aalesund attack 0.852 / def 1.099 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.845 / def 0.919 | league avg home 1.665 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Aalesund (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Aalesund xG
Expected Goals
1.14
ODD Ballklubb xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aalesund vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Aalesund vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 16 July 2023 at Color Line Stadion.
What was the final score in Aalesund vs ODD Ballklubb?
Aalesund 0 - 3 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Aalesund vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Color Line Stadion.
What competition is Aalesund vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Aalesund vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Aalesund vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Aalesund a 40% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Aalesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aalesund vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Aalesund and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Aalesund vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (4 meetings): Aalesund 1W | Draws 1 | ODD Ballklubb 2W.
What form are Aalesund and ODD Ballklubb in?
Aalesund (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Aalesund's attack rating (0.85) and ODD Ballklubb's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, ODD Ballklubb's attack versus Aalesund's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aalesund Win
40%
2.49
28%
3.60
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Aalesund xG
Total xG
2.44
1.14
ODD Ballklubb xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
13%
7.75
9%
11.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.9 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aalesund vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Aalesund and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Aalesund and 1.14 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Aalesund vs ODD Ballklubb?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Aalesund come into this having played 43 games, going 12W 10D 21L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Aalesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, ODD Ballklubb sit at 1.35 PPG from 43 outings (16W 10D 17L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Aalesund on 1.07 PPG, ODD Ballklubb on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Aalesund's home form reads 8W 6D 8L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, ODD Ballklubb have taken 1.27 points per game from 22 outings (7W 7D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Aalesund are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.19 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aalesund
Blended
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aalesund and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Aalesund have gone 12W 10D 21L in their last 43 games (1.07 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 16W 10D 17L in their last 43 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aalesund at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Aalesund's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aalesund at home: 1.36 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Aalesund or ODD Ballklubb been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aalesund have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, ODD Ballklubb in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Aalesund and ODD Ballklubb runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 December 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: ODD Ballklubb have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Oct 2020, when ODD Ballklubb won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Aalesund's record when hosting ODD Ballklubb specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Aalesund
1
Draws
4
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and ODD Ballklubb?
From 6 meetings on record, Aalesund have won 1, ODD Ballklubb have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Aalesund and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 3 December 2023, when ODD Ballklubb 4-1 Aalesund.
Who has won more matches between Aalesund and ODD Ballklubb?
ODD Ballklubb have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Aalesund see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
ODD Ballklubb see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aalesund 54%, ODD Ballklubb 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Aalesund) and 46% (ODD Ballklubb).
On the defensive side: Aalesund keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; ODD Ballklubb in 36%; Aalesund have failed to score in 27% of games; ODD Ballklubb in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aalesund home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aalesund play ODD Ballklubb?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Aalesund's recent matches and 46% of ODD Ballklubb's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aalesund vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Aalesund's recent games and 46% of ODD Ballklubb's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant ODD Ballklubb run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Aalesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ODD Ballklubb beat Aalesund 0-3 at Color Line Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aalesund 1.30 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.14 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Aalesund fell 1.3 short of their projected output. ODD Ballklubb outscored their 1.14 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aalesund attack 0.85 / defence 1.10 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.84 / defence 0.92, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aalesund 40% | Draw 28% | ODD Ballklubb 32%, with Aalesund to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual ODD Ballklubb win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aalesund 60%, ODD Ballklubb 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aalesund's trading profile (43 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (43 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Aalesund 1.07 PPG, ODD Ballklubb 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the ODD Ballklubb win broke the near-deadlock. Aalesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.