Sandefjord vs Start – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Start fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jotun Arena plays host to Sandefjord versus Start in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Sunday 20 September 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sandefjord have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Jotun Arena this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jotun Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Sandefjord are significantly better at Jotun Arena than their overall form suggests.
Start's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Start, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Start's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 7L across 9 road games this term (0.44 PPG). Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for Sandefjord, 0.90 for Start — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sandefjord lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2020, ended 1–0 with Sandefjord winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Sandefjord goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Start goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 44% versus Start 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 44% | Start 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.36 xG and Start 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.604 / defence 0.869 | Start attack 0.889 / defence 1.310. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.422. Sandefjord's attack strength of 0.604 is below the league average — the 1.36 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Start bring a strong defensive rating of 1.310 — this is suppressing Sandefjord's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Sandefjord games / 18 Start games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 43% | Draw 27% | Start 30%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Start 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sandefjord as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sandefjord if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sandefjord 20% | Start 78%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Start | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Jotun Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Sep 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 43% | Draw 27% | Start 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Sandefjord 1.36 / Start 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.604 / def 0.869 | Start attack 0.889 / def 1.310 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Start xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Start kick off?
Sandefjord vs Start is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Sunday 20 September 2026 at Jotun Arena.
Where is Sandefjord vs Start being played?
The match is being played at Jotun Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Start part of?
Sandefjord vs Start is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Start?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 43% chance of winning, Start a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Start?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sandefjord and Start will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Start have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Start?
Record (2 meetings): Sandefjord 1W | Draws 1 | Start 0W.
What form are Sandefjord and Start in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Start (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sandefjord's attack at 0.60x the league average against Start's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Start's attack (0.89x) against Sandefjord's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 48/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
43%
2.35
27%
3.67
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.45
1.10
Start xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
14%
7.05
8%
12.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.8 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Start?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Start expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.10 for Start, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Start?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sandefjord come into this having played 18 games, going 5W 4D 9L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Start sit at 0.72 PPG from 18 outings (3W 4D 11L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Start is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Sandefjord against 0.72 for Start. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sandefjord's home form reads 2W 4D 3L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Start have taken 0.44 points per game from 9 outings (1W 1D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sandefjord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sandefjord are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Start are on 1.11 scored and 2.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Start in 67%.
Last 18 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
Start
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Start in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 5W 4D 9L in their last 18 games (1.06 PPG), while Start have gone 3W 4D 11L in their last 18 (0.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Start away?
Sandefjord's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.11 PPG; Start away: 0.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since June 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 October 2020, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Sandefjord
1
Draws
0
Start
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Start?
From 2 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 1, Start have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Start last play each other?
They last met on 24 October 2020, when Start 0-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Start?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sandefjord see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Start are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 22%, Start 78% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 22% (Sandefjord) and 78% (Start).
On the defensive side: Sandefjord keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Sandefjord have failed to score in 56% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Start away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Start?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 22% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 78% of Start's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandefjord vs Start usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Sandefjord's recent games and 78% of Start's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sandefjord and Start tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Start in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.