Moss 0-0 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Moss at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Moss vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Moss and Haugesund meet at Melløs Stadion in Eliteserien, Relegation Round. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 5 December 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Haugesund's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Haugesund's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Moss 1.61 xG and Haugesund 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Moss attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Haugesund attack 0.860 / defence 1.286. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.284. Haugesund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.286 — this is suppressing Moss's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 0 Moss games / 60 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Moss 45% | Draw 24% | Haugesund 30%. Fair-value odds: Moss 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | Haugesund 3.33. Moss hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Moss as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Moss if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Moss vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Relegation Round | Venue: Melløs Stadion • Kick-off: Thursday 5 Dec 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Moss 45% | Draw 24% | Haugesund 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Moss 1.61 / Haugesund 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Moss attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Haugesund attack 0.860 / def 1.286 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Moss (45%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Moss xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Haugesund xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Moss vs Haugesund kick off?
Moss vs Haugesund kicked off at 17:30 on Thursday 5 December 2024 at Melløs Stadion.
What was the final score in Moss vs Haugesund?
Moss 0 - 0 Haugesund.
Where is Moss vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Melløs Stadion.
What competition is Moss vs Haugesund part of?
Moss vs Haugesund is a Relegation Round fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Moss vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Moss a 45% chance of winning, Haugesund a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Moss the favourite.
Will both teams score in Moss vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Moss and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Moss vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Moss and Haugesund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Moss and Haugesund in?
Haugesund (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Haugesund away split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | CS 2.
What do the betting odds say about Moss vs Haugesund?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Moss's attack at 0.85x the league average against Haugesund's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Haugesund's attack (0.86x) against Moss's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 0/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Moss Win
45%
2.21
24%
4.08
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Moss xG
Total xG
2.88
1.27
Haugesund xG
2.21
45%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
13%
7.86
6%
16.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.5 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Moss vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Moss and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Moss and 1.27 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Moss vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Moss
Pre-Season
Haugesund
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 December 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Moss
1
Draws
1
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Moss and Haugesund?
From 2 meetings on record, Moss have won 0, Haugesund have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Moss and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 8 December 2024, when Haugesund 2-0 Moss.
Who has won more matches between Moss and Haugesund?
Haugesund have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Moss home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Moss's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Melløs Stadion, Relegation Round, as Moss and Haugesund drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Moss 1.61 xG and Haugesund 1.27 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Moss fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Haugesund landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Moss attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Haugesund attack 0.86 / defence 1.29, drawn from 0/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Moss 45% | Draw 24% | Haugesund 30%, with Moss to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.