KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates KFUM Oslo at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
KFUM Arena plays host to KFUM Oslo versus Ham-Kam in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Sunday 1 November 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
KFUM Oslo have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for KFUM Oslo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KFUM Oslo at KFUM Arena this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Ham-Kam's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Ham-Kam have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for KFUM Oslo against 1.00 for Ham-Kam. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — KFUM Oslo lead 1W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2026, ended 0–4 with Ham-Kam winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
KFUM Oslo half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KFUM Oslo 58% versus Ham-Kam 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KFUM Oslo 52% | Ham-Kam 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KFUM Oslo 1.46 xG and Ham-Kam 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KFUM Oslo attack 0.814 / defence 1.012 | Ham-Kam attack 0.845 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.422. Data: 48 KFUM Oslo games / 48 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KFUM Oslo 43% | Draw 26% | Ham-Kam 31%. Fair-value odds: KFUM Oslo 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Ham-Kam 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is KFUM Oslo at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KFUM Oslo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: KFUM Oslo 40% | Ham-Kam 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: KFUM Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KFUM Oslo 43% | Draw 26% | Ham-Kam 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG KFUM Oslo 1.46 / Ham-Kam 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: KFUM Oslo attack 0.814 / def 1.012 | Ham-Kam attack 0.845 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: KFUM Oslo (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
KFUM Oslo xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Ham-Kam xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam kick off?
KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at KFUM Arena.
Where is KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at KFUM Arena.
What competition is KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam part of?
KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives KFUM Oslo a 43% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making KFUM Oslo the favourite.
Will both teams score in KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both KFUM Oslo and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between KFUM Oslo and Ham-Kam?
Record (5 meetings): KFUM Oslo 1W | Draws 3 | Ham-Kam 1W.
What form are KFUM Oslo and Ham-Kam in?
KFUM Oslo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Ham-Kam (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from KFUM Oslo's attack rating (0.81) and Ham-Kam's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ham-Kam's attack (0.84x) against KFUM Oslo's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KFUM Oslo Win
43%
2.34
26%
3.85
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
KFUM Oslo xG
Total xG
2.68
1.22
Ham-Kam xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
13%
7.90
7%
13.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.2 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are KFUM Oslo and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for KFUM Oslo and 1.22 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
KFUM Oslo come into this having played 48 games, going 13W 15D 20L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L. The sample for KFUM Oslo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ham-Kam sit at 1.25 PPG from 48 outings (16W 12D 20L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for KFUM Oslo against 1.25 for Ham-Kam. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
KFUM Oslo's home form reads 8W 7D 9L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Ham-Kam have taken 0.79 points per game from 24 outings (4W 7D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ham-Kam's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KFUM Oslo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
KFUM Oslo are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.42 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KFUM Oslo
Blended
Ham-Kam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KFUM Oslo and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
KFUM Oslo have gone 13W 15D 20L in their last 48 games (1.12 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 16W 12D 20L in their last 48 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KFUM Oslo at home or Ham-Kam away?
KFUM Oslo's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KFUM Oslo at home: 1.29 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ham-Kam won 4-0 on 19 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KFUM Oslo have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ham-Kam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
KFUM Oslo
3
Draws
1
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KFUM Oslo and Ham-Kam?
From 5 meetings on record, KFUM Oslo have won 1, Ham-Kam have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did KFUM Oslo and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Ham-Kam 4-0 KFUM Oslo.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
KFUM Oslo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KFUM Oslo 58%, Ham-Kam 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (KFUM Oslo) and 62% (Ham-Kam). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KFUM Oslo home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KFUM Oslo play Ham-Kam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of KFUM Oslo's recent matches and 46% of Ham-Kam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of KFUM Oslo's matches and 62% of Ham-Kam's.
Do KFUM Oslo and Ham-Kam tend to score early?
KFUM Oslo have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Ham-Kam in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.