KFUM Oslo 0-2 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as KFUM Oslo face Bodo/Glimt.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bodo/Glimt make the trip to KFUM Arena to face KFUM Oslo in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Sunday 12 July 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
KFUM Oslo (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for KFUM Oslo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at KFUM Arena, KFUM Oslo have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Bodo/Glimt have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bodo/Glimt are 1.10 PPG clear of KFUM Oslo in recent Eliteserien fixtures (2.00 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — KFUM Oslo lead 0W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2025, ended 1–2 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
KFUM Oslo half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Bodo/Glimt half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KFUM Oslo 56% versus Bodo/Glimt 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KFUM Oslo 51% | Bodo/Glimt 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KFUM Oslo 1.23 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KFUM Oslo attack 0.763 / defence 0.854 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.314 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.763 / away 1.177. KFUM Oslo's attack strength of 0.763 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack strength of 1.314 — the away xG of 1.32 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 KFUM Oslo games / 41 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KFUM Oslo 34% | Draw 28% | Bodo/Glimt 38%. Fair-value odds: KFUM Oslo 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Bodo/Glimt 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: KFUM Oslo 50% | Bodo/Glimt 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KFUM Oslo vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: KFUM Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KFUM Oslo 34% | Draw 28% | Bodo/Glimt 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG KFUM Oslo 1.23 / Bodo/Glimt 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: KFUM Oslo attack 0.763 / def 0.854 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.314 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.763 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
KFUM Oslo xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Bodo/Glimt xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KFUM Oslo vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
KFUM Oslo vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 12 July 2026 at KFUM Arena.
What was the final score in KFUM Oslo vs Bodo/Glimt?
KFUM Oslo 0 - 2 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is KFUM Oslo vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at KFUM Arena.
What competition is KFUM Oslo vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
KFUM Oslo vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win KFUM Oslo vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives KFUM Oslo a 34% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in KFUM Oslo vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both KFUM Oslo and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will KFUM Oslo vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between KFUM Oslo and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (4 meetings): KFUM Oslo 0W | Draws 2 | Bodo/Glimt 2W.
What form are KFUM Oslo and Bodo/Glimt in?
KFUM Oslo (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from KFUM Oslo's attack rating (0.76) and Bodo/Glimt's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bodo/Glimt's attack (1.31x) against KFUM Oslo's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
34%
2.97
28%
3.56
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
KFUM Oslo xG
Total xG
2.55
1.32
Bodo/Glimt xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
9%
11.11
11%
8.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.3 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.7 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.8 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KFUM Oslo vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are KFUM Oslo and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for KFUM Oslo and 1.32 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for KFUM Oslo vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
KFUM Oslo's recent record stands at 11W 14D 16L from 41 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for KFUM Oslo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt, meanwhile, have gone 29W 6D 6L across 41 games — 2.27 PPG, with L-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 1.12 — a real, if not enormous, edge over KFUM Oslo heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, KFUM Oslo have managed 8W 6D 7L from 21 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bodo/Glimt's away record stands at 13W 5D 3L across 21 trips, a 2.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
KFUM Oslo are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.76 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KFUM Oslo
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KFUM Oslo and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
KFUM Oslo have gone 11W 14D 16L in their last 41 games (1.15 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 29W 6D 6L in their last 41 (2.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KFUM Oslo at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KFUM Oslo at home: 1.43 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.10 PPG.
Have KFUM Oslo or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
KFUM Oslo have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Bodo/Glimt have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 3-0 on 27 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KFUM Oslo have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Bodo/Glimt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
KFUM Oslo
2
Draws
3
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KFUM Oslo and Bodo/Glimt?
From 5 meetings on record, KFUM Oslo have won 0, Bodo/Glimt have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did KFUM Oslo and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when KFUM Oslo 0-2 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between KFUM Oslo and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
KFUM Oslo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KFUM Oslo 57%, Bodo/Glimt 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for KFUM Oslo and 71% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: KFUM Oslo keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KFUM Oslo home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KFUM Oslo play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of KFUM Oslo's games and 67% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is KFUM Oslo vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of KFUM Oslo's matches and 71% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do KFUM Oslo and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
KFUM Oslo have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bodo/Glimt cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over KFUM Oslo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat KFUM Oslo 0-2 at KFUM Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KFUM Oslo 1.23 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.32 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. KFUM Oslo fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KFUM Oslo attack 0.76 / defence 0.85 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.31 / defence 0.91, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KFUM Oslo 34% | Draw 28% | Bodo/Glimt 38%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KFUM Oslo 51%, Bodo/Glimt 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KFUM Oslo's trading profile (41 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (41 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win. KFUM Oslo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.