Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Haugesund face Bodo/Glimt.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Bodo/Glimt travel to Haugesund Stadion to take on Haugesund in Eliteserien (matchday 19). The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 August 2021 at 02:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Haugesund have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Haugesund have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Haugesund are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Bodo/Glimt — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Bodo/Glimt's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Haugesund 1.70 PPG, Bodo/Glimt 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Haugesund have won 0, Bodo/Glimt 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 May 2021, ended Haugesund 0–2 Bodo/Glimt — a Bodo/Glimt win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Haugesund trading profile (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Bodo/Glimt trading profile (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 68% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 52% versus Bodo/Glimt 64%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Haugesund 59% | Bodo/Glimt 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.72 xG and Bodo/Glimt 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 1.148 / defence 0.767 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.030 / defence 0.849. League average goals — home 1.766 / away 1.242. Haugesund have a tight defence (rating 0.767), which is pulling Bodo/Glimt's projected output down. Data: built from Haugesund's last 44 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 44.
Result probabilities: Haugesund 52% | Draw 29% | Bodo/Glimt 19%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 1.92 | Draw 3.41 | Bodo/Glimt 5.36. Haugesund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Haugesund as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haugesund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Haugesund's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Haugesund 50% (last 10 home games) | Bodo/Glimt 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 19 | Venue: Haugesund Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 August 2021 at 02:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 52% | Draw 29% | Bodo/Glimt 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Haugesund 1.72 / Bodo/Glimt 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 1.148 / def 0.767 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.030 / def 0.849 | league avg home 1.766 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Bodo/Glimt xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt FAQs
What time does Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 02:00 UK time on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Haugesund Stadion.
Where is Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Stadion.
What competition is Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 19) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 52% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 19% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Haugesund's attack at 1.15x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bodo/Glimt's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Haugesund's last 44 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
52%
1.92
29%
3.41
19%
5.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.70
0.98
Bodo/Glimt xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
5.36
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
18%
5.59
Win to Nil
19%
5.14
3%
29.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.3 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Haugesund and 0.98 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Haugesund come into this having played 44 games, going 17W 10D 17L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, Bodo/Glimt sit at 2.41 PPG from 44 outings (33W 7D 4L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-D across their last five.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.02 PPG clear of Haugesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Haugesund's home form reads 12W 4D 5L across their last 21 home games, a 1.90 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — Haugesund are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Bodo/Glimt have taken 2.10 points per game from their last 21 away games (13W 5D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Haugesund are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 3.00 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt in 64%.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Haugesund (Home) vs Bodo/Glimt (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Haugesund
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt Form FAQs
What form are Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 17W 10D 17L in their last 44 games (1.39 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 33W 7D 4L in their last 44 (2.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.90 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from May 2021. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 5 October 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Bodo/Glimt have won each of the latest 6 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Jun 2025, when Bodo/Glimt won Haugesund 0-4 Bodo/Glimt.
Haugesund's record when hosting Bodo/Glimt specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Haugesund
2
Draws
8
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Haugesund have won 0, Bodo/Glimt have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 October 2025: Bodo/Glimt 2-0 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 48%, Bodo/Glimt 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Haugesund and 76% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Haugesund's games and 71% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Haugesund's matches and 76% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Haugesund's recent matches and 81% of Bodo/Glimt's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Haugesund's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt finished level at 0-0 at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.72 xG and Bodo/Glimt 0.98 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Haugesund fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Bodo/Glimt landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 1.15 / defence 0.77 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.03 / defence 0.85, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 52% | Draw 29% | Bodo/Glimt 19%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 59%, Bodo/Glimt 77%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 1.39. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.