Bodo/Glimt vs Mjondalen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (59%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Bodo/Glimt face Mjondalen.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Bodo/Glimt welcome Mjondalen to Aspmyra Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 18). Kick-off is Saturday 7 August 2021 at 02:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Bodo/Glimt have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Bodo/Glimt have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Bodo/Glimt are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Mjondalen stand at 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Mjondalen away from home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Bodo/Glimt have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Bodo/Glimt: 3 wins from 3 H2H matches against 0 for Mjondalen, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 13 Jun 2021, ended Bodo/Glimt 2–0 Mjondalen — a Bodo/Glimt win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Bodo/Glimt and goals — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Bodo/Glimt trading profile (last 44 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 96% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 68% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
Mjondalen trading profile (last 44 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 64% versus Mjondalen 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodo/Glimt 77% | Mjondalen 43%). Note also that Mjondalen surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Bodo/Glimt recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.13 xG and Mjondalen 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.403 / defence 0.980 | Mjondalen attack 0.947 / defence 0.890. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.167. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack rating of 1.403 — their 2.13 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Bodo/Glimt's last 44 games and Mjondalen's last 43.
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 59% | Draw 25% | Mjondalen 16%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.69 | Draw 4.05 | Mjondalen 6.16. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (59%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (2.13 / 1.08) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.21 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Bodo/Glimt's last 10 home games and Mjondalen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bodo/Glimt 50% (last 10 home games) | Mjondalen 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Mjondalen | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 18 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 7 August 2021 at 02:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 59% | Draw 25% | Mjondalen 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.13 / Mjondalen 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.403 / def 0.980 | Mjondalen attack 0.947 / def 0.890 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Mjondalen xG
60%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Mjondalen FAQs
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Mjondalen kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Mjondalen kicked off at 02:00 UK time on Saturday 7 August 2021 at Aspmyra Stadion.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Mjondalen being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Mjondalen part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Mjondalen is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 18) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Mjondalen?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 59% chance of winning, Mjondalen a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Mjondalen?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Mjondalen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Mjondalen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bodo/Glimt's attack at 1.40x the league average against Mjondalen's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 2.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mjondalen's attack versus Bodo/Glimt's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bodo/Glimt's last 44 games and Mjondalen's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
59%
1.69
25%
4.05
16%
6.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
3.21
1.08
Mjondalen xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
6.16
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
12%
8.40
Win to Nil
20%
5.00
2%
51.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Mjondalen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Mjondalen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Mjondalen expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.08 for Mjondalen, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Mjondalen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bodo/Glimt's recent record stands at 33W 7D 4L from 44 games, a 2.41 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-D in the last five.
Mjondalen, meanwhile, have gone 11W 9D 24L across 44 games — 0.95 PPG, with L-W-D-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 1.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mjondalen heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bodo/Glimt have managed 19W 2D 1L from their last 22 home games — 2.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mjondalen's away record stands at 3W 6D 13L across their last 22 away games, a 0.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 3.00 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Mjondalen are on 1.00 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Mjondalen
Blended
Bodo/Glimt (Home) vs Mjondalen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Mjondalen
Blended
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Mjondalen Form FAQs
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Mjondalen in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 33W 7D 4L in their last 44 games (2.41 PPG), while Mjondalen have gone 11W 9D 24L in their last 44 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Mjondalen away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.68 PPG; Mjondalen away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2020. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 12 December 2021, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Bodo/Glimt have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 12 Dec 2021, when Bodo/Glimt won Mjondalen 0-3 Bodo/Glimt.
Bodo/Glimt's record when hosting Mjondalen specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Bodo/Glimt
0
Draws
0
Mjondalen
Recent Meetings
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Mjondalen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Mjondalen?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Bodo/Glimt have won 4, Mjondalen have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Mjondalen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 December 2021: Mjondalen 0-3 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Mjondalen?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 77% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 54%, Mjondalen 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 77% (Bodo/Glimt) and 41% (Mjondalen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Mjondalen in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Mjondalen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Mjondalen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bodo/Glimt and Mjondalen matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Bodo/Glimt's recent matches and 54% of Mjondalen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bodo/Glimt and Mjondalen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 41% of Mjondalen's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Mjondalen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 96% of Bodo/Glimt's recent matches and 64% of Mjondalen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bodo/Glimt's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 18, as Bodo/Glimt and Mjondalen drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 2.13 xG and Mjondalen 1.08 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Mjondalen landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.40 / defence 0.98 against Mjondalen attack 0.95 / defence 0.89, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 59% | Draw 25% | Mjondalen 16%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 77%, Mjondalen 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Mjondalen's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Mjondalen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.