Bodo/Glimt 4-1 Stabaek – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodo/Glimt vs Stabaek encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Aspmyra Stadion plays host to Bodo/Glimt versus Stabaek in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Sunday 27 June 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bodo/Glimt have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 3.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bodo/Glimt's home record at Aspmyra Stadion: 10W 0D 0L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 4.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Aspmyra Stadion. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.50 — Bodo/Glimt are significantly better at Aspmyra Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Stabaek's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Stabaek's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Bodo/Glimt's favour (2.50 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bodo/Glimt lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2020, ended 5–2 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Bodo/Glimt half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 87% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 67%.
Stabaek half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 70% and Stabaek 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 90% | Stabaek 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.35 xG and Stabaek 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.454 / defence 0.921 | Stabaek attack 0.994 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.651 / away 1.180. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.454 — their λ of 2.35 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 40 Bodo/Glimt games / 37 Stabaek games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 65% | Draw 20% | Stabaek 15%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.54 | Draw 5.00 | Stabaek 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.35 / 1.08) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.43 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bodo/Glimt 50% | Stabaek 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Stabaek | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Jun 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 65% | Draw 20% | Stabaek 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 61% | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.35 / Stabaek 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.454 / def 0.921 | Stabaek attack 0.994 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.651 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.35
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Stabaek xG
61%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Stabaek kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Stabaek kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 27 June 2021 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Stabaek?
Bodo/Glimt 4 - 1 Stabaek.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Stabaek being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Stabaek part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Stabaek is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Stabaek?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 65% chance of winning, Stabaek a 15% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Stabaek?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Stabaek will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Stabaek have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Stabaek?
Record (2 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 1W | Draws 1 | Stabaek 0W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Stabaek in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Stabaek (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bodo/Glimt's attacking strength (1.45x league average) is weighed against Stabaek's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.35. Flip it around — Stabaek's attack (0.99x) against Bodo/Glimt's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 40/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
65%
1.55
20%
4.92
15%
6.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.9%
Home win
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.35
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
3.43
1.08
Stabaek xG
1.55
65%
Home win
4.92
20%
Draw
6.64
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
10%
10.46
Win to Nil
22%
4.56
1%
69.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Stabaek?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Stabaek expected to score?
The model projects 2.35 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.08 for Stabaek, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Stabaek?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bodo/Glimt come into this having played 30 games, going 26W 3D 1L for 2.70 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, Stabaek sit at 1.30 PPG from 30 outings (9W 12D 9L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-W across their last five.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.40 PPG clear of Stabaek — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Bodo/Glimt's home form reads 15W 0D 0L across 15 games on their own ground, a 3.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Stabaek have taken 1.20 points per game from 15 outings (4W 6D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 3.43 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Stabaek are on 1.37 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
Stabaek
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Stabaek in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 26W 3D 1L in their last 30 games (2.70 PPG), while Stabaek have gone 9W 12D 9L in their last 30 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Stabaek away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 3.00 PPG; Stabaek away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Stabaek been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Stabaek in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 November 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Bodo/Glimt go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 4-0 on 16 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bodo/Glimt have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Stabaek — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Bodo/Glimt
1
Draws
0
Stabaek
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Stabaek?
From 6 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 5, Stabaek have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Stabaek last play each other?
They last met on 5 November 2023, when Stabaek 0-4 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Stabaek?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 87% of the time.
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 60%, Stabaek 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 87% for Bodo/Glimt and 67% for Stabaek. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Stabaek in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Stabaek away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Stabaek?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Bodo/Glimt's games and 60% of Stabaek's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Stabaek usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 87% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 67% of Stabaek's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Stabaek tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Stabaek in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bodo/Glimt run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Stabaek.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Stabaek 4-1 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 2.35 xG and Stabaek 1.08 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.45 / defence 0.92 against Stabaek attack 0.99 / defence 0.98, drawn from 40/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 65% | Draw 20% | Stabaek 15%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 90%, Stabaek 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Stabaek's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.70 PPG against 1.30. Form held, and they took the win. Stabaek (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.