Mjondalen 3-0 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Mjondalen take on Haugesund.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Consto Arena plays host to Mjondalen versus Haugesund in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 10 July 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mjondalen have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjondalen's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Consto Arena this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Mjondalen are significantly better at Consto Arena than their overall form suggests.
Haugesund (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Haugesund have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Haugesund arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Mjondalen, 0 for Haugesund and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2020, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Mjondalen half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Haugesund half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjondalen 46% versus Haugesund 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjondalen 44% | Haugesund 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjondalen 0.96 xG and Haugesund 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjondalen attack 0.730 / defence 0.933 | Haugesund attack 0.741 / defence 0.799. League average goals — home 1.641 / away 1.152. Mjondalen's attack strength of 0.730 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Haugesund's defence strength of 0.799 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 39 Mjondalen games / 39 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjondalen 36% | Draw 37% | Haugesund 27%. Fair-value odds: Mjondalen 2.78 | Draw 2.70 | Haugesund 3.70. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.75. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.75 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 27% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.75 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates are neutral: Mjondalen 50% | Haugesund 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjondalen vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Consto Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Jul 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjondalen 36% | Draw 37% | Haugesund 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 36% | xG Mjondalen 0.96 / Haugesund 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Mjondalen attack 0.730 / def 0.933 | Haugesund attack 0.741 / def 0.799 | league avg home 1.641 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Mjondalen xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Haugesund xG
36%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjondalen vs Haugesund kick off?
Mjondalen vs Haugesund kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 10 July 2021 at Consto Arena.
What was the final score in Mjondalen vs Haugesund?
Mjondalen 3 - 0 Haugesund.
Where is Mjondalen vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Consto Arena.
What competition is Mjondalen vs Haugesund part of?
Mjondalen vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Mjondalen vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Mjondalen a 36% chance of winning, Haugesund a 27% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Mjondalen vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Mjondalen and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Mjondalen vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Haugesund?
Record (2 meetings): Mjondalen 1W | Draws 1 | Haugesund 0W.
What form are Mjondalen and Haugesund in?
Mjondalen (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Haugesund (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Mjondalen's attack at 0.73x the league average against Haugesund's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Haugesund's attack (0.74x) against Mjondalen's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.78
37%
2.71
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Mjondalen xG
Total xG
1.75
0.80
Haugesund xG
2.78
36%
Home win
2.71
37%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
16%
6.16
10%
9.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.3 | 13.8 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 13.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjondalen vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.0%.
How many goals are Mjondalen and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Mjondalen and 0.80 for Haugesund, a combined total of 1.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjondalen vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mjondalen come into this having played 39 games, going 10W 6D 23L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-L. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Haugesund sit at 1.38 PPG from 39 outings (15W 9D 15L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haugesund carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Mjondalen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Mjondalen's home form reads 6W 3D 10L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Haugesund have taken 1.05 points per game from 19 outings (5W 5D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
Mjondalen are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.31 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjondalen
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjondalen and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Mjondalen have gone 10W 6D 23L in their last 39 games (0.92 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 15W 9D 15L in their last 39 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjondalen at home or Haugesund away?
Mjondalen's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjondalen at home: 1.11 PPG; Haugesund away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Mjondalen or Haugesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjondalen have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Haugesund in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Haugesund won 7-0 on 17 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjondalen have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Haugesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Mjondalen
1
Draws
1
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Haugesund?
From 4 meetings on record, Mjondalen have won 2, Haugesund have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mjondalen and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2021, when Haugesund 7-0 Mjondalen.
Who has won more matches between Mjondalen and Haugesund?
Mjondalen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjondalen 42%, Haugesund 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Mjondalen) and 53% (Haugesund).
On the defensive side: Mjondalen keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Haugesund in 32%; Mjondalen have failed to score in 32% of games; Haugesund in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjondalen home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjondalen play Haugesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Mjondalen's recent matches and 53% of Haugesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjondalen vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Mjondalen's recent games and 53% of Haugesund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjondalen and Haugesund tend to score early?
Mjondalen have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Mjondalen run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Haugesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjondalen beat Haugesund 3-0 at Consto Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjondalen 0.96 xG and Haugesund 0.80 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Mjondalen beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjondalen attack 0.73 / defence 0.93 against Haugesund attack 0.74 / defence 0.80, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjondalen 36% | Draw 37% | Haugesund 27%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Mjondalen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjondalen 44%, Haugesund 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjondalen's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Haugesund's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Haugesund arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with Mjondalen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Mjondalen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.