Waalwijk 1-2 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waalwijk vs Heracles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Heracles travel to Mandemakers Stadion to take on Waalwijk. The game is scheduled for Friday 12 January 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waalwijk stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk's home record at Mandemakers Stadion: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Heracles — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heracles's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Waalwijk) versus 0.70 (Heracles). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Waalwijk, 1 for Heracles and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2022, ended 2–0 with Waalwijk winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Waalwijk in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Heracles in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 89% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waalwijk 56% versus Heracles 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Waalwijk 64% | Heracles 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.93 xG and Heracles 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.876 / defence 1.086 | Heracles attack 0.866 / defence 1.309. League average goals — home 1.683 / away 1.532. Heracles bring a strong defensive rating of 1.309 — this is suppressing Waalwijk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Waalwijk games / 16 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 47% | Draw 26% | Heracles 27%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Heracles 3.70. Waalwijk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.93 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Waalwijk are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waalwijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.37 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 60% | Heracles 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Heracles | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 12 Jan 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 47% | Draw 26% | Heracles 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 67% | xG Waalwijk 1.93 / Heracles 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.876 / def 1.086 | Heracles attack 0.866 / def 1.309 | league avg home 1.683 / away 1.532 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Heracles xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Heracles kick off?
Waalwijk vs Heracles kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 12 January 2024 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Heracles?
Waalwijk 1 - 2 Heracles.
Where is Waalwijk vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Heracles part of?
Waalwijk vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 47% chance of winning, Heracles a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Waalwijk and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Heracles?
Record (2 meetings): Waalwijk 1W | Draws 0 | Heracles 1W.
What form are Waalwijk and Heracles in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Heracles (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Waalwijk's attack rating (0.88) and Heracles's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus Waalwijk's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
47%
2.12
26%
3.88
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
3.37
1.44
Heracles xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.04
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
15%
6.90
Win to Nil
11%
8.94
4%
25.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 9.6 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.44 for Heracles, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Heracles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Waalwijk's recent record stands at 15W 10D 25L from 50 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Heracles, meanwhile, have gone 28W 6D 16L across 50 games — 1.80 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Heracles by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Waalwijk heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Waalwijk have managed 11W 4D 10L from 25 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Heracles's away record stands at 11W 3D 11L across 25 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Waalwijk are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 2.22 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
Heracles
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Heracles in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 15W 10D 25L in their last 50 games (1.10 PPG), while Heracles have gone 28W 6D 16L in their last 50 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Heracles away?
Waalwijk's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.48 PPG; Heracles away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Waalwijk and Heracles runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 May 2024, when Waalwijk won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Waalwijk's record when hosting Heracles specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Waalwijk
2
Draws
2
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Heracles?
From 6 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 2, Heracles have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2025, when Waalwijk 0-0 Heracles.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 64%, Heracles 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Waalwijk and 76% for Heracles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Heracles?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Waalwijk's games and 56% of Heracles's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Waalwijk's matches and 76% of Heracles's.
Do Waalwijk and Heracles tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Heracles in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Heracles defy the odds to beat Waalwijk 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heracles beat Waalwijk 1-2 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.93 xG and Heracles 1.44 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Waalwijk fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.88 / defence 1.09 against Heracles attack 0.87 / defence 1.31, drawn from 50/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 47% | Draw 26% | Heracles 27%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Heracles win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 64%, Heracles 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Heracles's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Heracles arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.10. Form held, and they took the win. Heracles (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.