Utrecht 1-1 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Utrecht at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Utrecht vs Waalwijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Utrecht and Waalwijk meet at Stadion Galgenwaard in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 December 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Utrecht's overall Eredivisie record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Utrecht at Stadion Galgenwaard this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Waalwijk have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Utrecht against 1.00 for Waalwijk. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Utrecht lead 1W to 0W over the last 4 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2023, ended 2–0 with Utrecht winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Utrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Waalwijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Utrecht 53% versus Waalwijk 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utrecht 55% | Waalwijk 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utrecht 1.58 xG and Waalwijk 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utrecht attack 0.915 / defence 1.129 | Waalwijk attack 0.685 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.688 / away 1.503. Data: 49 Utrecht games / 49 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Utrecht 45% | Draw 28% | Waalwijk 26%. Fair-value odds: Utrecht 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Waalwijk 3.85. Utrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Utrecht at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Utrecht if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Utrecht 70% | Waalwijk 20%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utrecht vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Dec 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utrecht 45% | Draw 28% | Waalwijk 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Utrecht 1.58 / Waalwijk 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Utrecht attack 0.915 / def 1.129 | Waalwijk attack 0.685 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.688 / away 1.503 • Poisson stance: Utrecht (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Waalwijk xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Utrecht vs Waalwijk kick off?
Utrecht vs Waalwijk kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 16 December 2023 at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What was the final score in Utrecht vs Waalwijk?
Utrecht 1 - 1 Waalwijk.
Where is Utrecht vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What competition is Utrecht vs Waalwijk part of?
Utrecht vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Utrecht vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Utrecht a 45% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utrecht vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Utrecht and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Utrecht vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and Waalwijk?
Record (4 meetings): Utrecht 1W | Draws 3 | Waalwijk 0W.
What form are Utrecht and Waalwijk in?
Utrecht (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Utrecht's attack rating (0.92) and Waalwijk's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Waalwijk's attack (0.69x) against Utrecht's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Utrecht Win
45%
2.20
28%
3.53
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.75
1.16
Waalwijk xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
14%
7.03
5%
18.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.8 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Utrecht vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Utrecht and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Utrecht and 1.16 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Utrecht vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Utrecht's recent record stands at 20W 11D 18L from 49 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Waalwijk, meanwhile, have gone 15W 9D 25L across 49 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Utrecht against 1.10 for Waalwijk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Utrecht have managed 9W 7D 8L from 24 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Waalwijk's away record stands at 4W 5D 15L across 24 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Utrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Utrecht are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.31 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utrecht
Blended
Waalwijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Utrecht and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Utrecht have gone 20W 11D 18L in their last 49 games (1.45 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 15W 9D 25L in their last 49 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utrecht at home or Waalwijk away?
Utrecht's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utrecht at home: 1.42 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Utrecht have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Utrecht won 0-4 on 25 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Utrecht have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Utrecht
5
Draws
0
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and Waalwijk?
From 8 meetings on record, Utrecht have won 3, Waalwijk have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Utrecht and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2025, when Waalwijk 0-4 Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Utrecht and Waalwijk?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Utrecht see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Utrecht 58%, Waalwijk 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Utrecht) and 58% (Waalwijk).
On the defensive side: Waalwijk in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utrecht home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Utrecht play Waalwijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Utrecht's recent matches and 46% of Waalwijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Utrecht vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Utrecht's recent games and 58% of Waalwijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Utrecht and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Utrecht and Waalwijk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 16, as Utrecht and Waalwijk drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utrecht 1.58 xG and Waalwijk 1.16 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utrecht attack 0.92 / defence 1.13 against Waalwijk attack 0.69 / defence 1.03, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utrecht 45% | Draw 28% | Waalwijk 26%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utrecht 55%, Waalwijk 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utrecht's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Waalwijk's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Utrecht 1.45 PPG, Waalwijk 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Waalwijk (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.