Telstar 3-0 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Telstar at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Telstar vs Heracles encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 33 as Telstar welcome Heracles to BUKO Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 10 May 2026 at 15:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Telstar have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Telstar at BUKO Stadion this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Heracles — All Games: 0W 2D 8L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 0.20 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Heracles away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Telstar carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Telstar register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Heracles in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Telstar, 2 for Heracles and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Telstar trading profile (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Heracles trading profile (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Telstar 56% versus Heracles 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Telstar 62% | Heracles 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Telstar 2.53 xG and Heracles 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Telstar attack 1.052 / defence 1.113 | Heracles attack 0.728 / defence 1.408. League average goals — home 1.706 / away 1.294. Heracles bring a strong defensive rating of 1.408 — this is suppressing Telstar's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Telstar games / 66 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Telstar 67% | Draw 21% | Heracles 12%. Fair-value odds: Telstar 1.49 | Draw 4.76 | Heracles 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Telstar (67%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.53 / 1.05) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Heracles lead the H2H ledger, but Telstar carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Telstar as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.58 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Telstar 70% | Heracles 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Telstar vs Heracles | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: BUKO Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Telstar 67% | Draw 21% | Heracles 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 62% | xG Telstar 2.53 / Heracles 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Telstar attack 1.052 / def 1.113 | Heracles attack 0.728 / def 1.408 | league avg home 1.706 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Telstar (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.53
Telstar xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Heracles xG
62%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Telstar vs Heracles kick off?
Telstar vs Heracles kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 10 May 2026 at BUKO Stadion.
What was the final score in Telstar vs Heracles?
Telstar 3 - 0 Heracles.
Where is Telstar vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at BUKO Stadion.
What competition is Telstar vs Heracles part of?
Telstar vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Telstar vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives Telstar a 67% chance of winning, Heracles a 12% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Telstar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Telstar vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Telstar and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will Telstar vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Heracles?
Record (3 meetings): Telstar 0W | Draws 1 | Heracles 2W.
What form are Telstar and Heracles in?
Telstar (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Heracles (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Telstar's attack at 1.05x the league average against Heracles's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 2.53 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus Telstar's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (8.9%), 1-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Telstar Win
67%
1.49
21%
4.76
12%
8.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.9%
Home win
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.53
Telstar xG
Total xG
3.58
1.05
Heracles xG
1.49
67%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
8.58
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
8%
12.50
Win to Nil
24%
4.24
1%
107.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Telstar vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Telstar and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 2.53 expected goals for Telstar and 1.05 for Heracles, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Telstar vs Heracles?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 66 outings, Telstar have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 25W 17D 24L record — W-L-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Heracles's form line: 14W 15D 37L from 66 games, 0.86 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Telstar are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Heracles.
Venue Form
On home soil, Telstar have posted 1.73 PPG from 33 outings (16W 9D 8L).
On the road, Heracles have gone 4W 5D 24L from 33 away games — 0.52 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Telstar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Telstar are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.15 scored and 2.17 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Telstar
Current Season
Heracles
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Telstar and Heracles in coming into this match?
Telstar have gone 25W 17D 24L in their last 66 games (1.39 PPG), while Heracles have gone 14W 15D 37L in their last 66 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Telstar at home or Heracles away?
Telstar's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Telstar at home: 1.73 PPG; Heracles away: 0.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Feb 2023, when Heracles won 7-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Telstar's record when hosting Heracles specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Telstar
1
Draws
2
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Heracles?
From 4 meetings on record, Telstar have won 1, Heracles have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Telstar and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Telstar 3-0 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between Telstar and Heracles?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Telstar 61%, Heracles 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Telstar and 64% for Heracles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Telstar keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Heracles in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Telstar home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Telstar play Heracles?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Telstar's recent matches and 48% of Heracles's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Telstar vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Telstar's matches and 64% of Heracles's.
Do Telstar and Heracles tend to score early?
Telstar have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Heracles in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Telstar run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Heracles.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Telstar beat Heracles 3-0 at BUKO Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 2.53 xG and Heracles 1.05 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Heracles landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 1.05 / defence 1.11 against Heracles attack 0.73 / defence 1.41, drawn from 32/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Telstar 67% | Draw 21% | Heracles 12%, with Telstar to win its most likely call at 67%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 62%, Heracles 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Telstar's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Heracles's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Telstar arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Telstar (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.