NAC Breda 1-1 Willem II – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates NAC Breda at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as NAC Breda face Willem II.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

NAC Breda and Willem II meet at Rat Verlegh Stadion in Eredivisie (matchday 34). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 May 2025 at 14:30 UK time.

Form

NAC Breda (all games): 0W 5D 5L across their last 10 — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, NAC Breda have posted 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — NAC Breda are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Willem II have collected 0.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 1D 9L. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Willem II's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.50 PPG for NAC Breda against 0.10 for Willem II. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, NAC Breda edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.4 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 24 Nov 2024, ended NAC Breda 2–2 Willem II — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

NAC Breda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

Willem II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NAC Breda 65% and Willem II 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 56% | Willem II 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: NAC Breda surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Willem II have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 41% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.32 xG and Willem II 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.725 / defence 1.134 | Willem II attack 0.630 / defence 1.138. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.326. NAC Breda's attack rating of 0.725 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.32. Willem II's attack rating of 0.630 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.95. Data: built from NAC Breda's last 33 games and Willem II's last 33.

Result probabilities: NAC Breda 44% | Draw 31% | Willem II 25%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.29 | Draw 3.22 | Willem II 3.96. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, NAC Breda are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on NAC Breda if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: NAC Breda 80% (last 10 home games) | Willem II 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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