AZ Alkmaar 1-1 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AZ Alkmaar and Almere City FC meet at AFAS Stadion in Eredivisie (matchday 34). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 May 2025 at 14:30 UK time.
Form
AZ Alkmaar (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, AZ Alkmaar have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — AZ Alkmaar are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Almere City FC's record over their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Almere City FC have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward AZ Alkmaar. A 0.60 PPG lead over Almere City FC (1.30 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for AZ Alkmaar, 0 for Almere City FC and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Aug 2024, ended AZ Alkmaar 1–0 Almere City FC — a AZ Alkmaar win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
AZ Alkmaar — key trading statistics (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 31 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Almere City FC — key trading statistics (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AZ Alkmaar 52% versus Almere City FC 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AZ Alkmaar 64% | Almere City FC 49%). Note also that Almere City FC surrender HT leads in 54% of cases while AZ Alkmaar recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 1.53 xG and Almere City FC 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 0.939 / defence 0.830 | Almere City FC attack 0.735 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.326. Almere City FC's attack rating of 0.735 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.81. Data: built from AZ Alkmaar's last 67 games and Almere City FC's last 67.
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 53% | Draw 29% | Almere City FC 18%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 1.89 | Draw 3.48 | Almere City FC 5.43. AZ Alkmaar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AZ Alkmaar if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 59% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (AZ Alkmaar's last 10 home games and Almere City FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: AZ Alkmaar 40% (last 10 home games) | Almere City FC 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 34 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 53% | Draw 29% | Almere City FC 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG AZ Alkmaar 1.53 / Almere City FC 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 0.939 / def 0.830 | Almere City FC attack 0.735 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.601 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Almere City FC xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City FC FAQs
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City FC kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City FC kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 18 May 2025 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City FC?
AZ Alkmaar 1 - 1 Almere City FC.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City FC part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City FC is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 34) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 53% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 18% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and Almere City FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from AZ Alkmaar's attack rating (0.94) and Almere City FC's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Almere City FC's attack (0.73x) against AZ Alkmaar's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from AZ Alkmaar's last 67 games and Almere City FC's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
53%
1.89
29%
3.48
18%
5.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
2.34
0.81
Almere City FC xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
5.43
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
45%
2.25
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
24%
4.25
4%
25.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 11.9 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 0.81 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AZ Alkmaar's recent record stands at 35W 16D 16L from 67 games, a 1.81 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Almere City FC, meanwhile, have gone 11W 22D 34L across 67 games — 0.82 PPG, with L-L-D-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours AZ Alkmaar by 0.99 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Almere City FC heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, AZ Alkmaar have managed 19W 6D 8L from their last 33 home games — 1.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Almere City FC's away record stands at 6W 10D 17L across their last 33 away games, a 0.85 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 0.82 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Defensively: AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Current Season
Almere City FC
Current Season
AZ Alkmaar (Home) vs Almere City FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AZ Alkmaar
Current Season
Almere City FC
Current Season
❓ AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City FC Form FAQs
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 35W 16D 16L in their last 67 games (1.81 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 11W 22D 34L in their last 67 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or Almere City FC away?
AZ Alkmaar's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 1.91 PPG; Almere City FC away: 0.85 PPG.
Have AZ Alkmaar or Almere City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Almere City FC in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between AZ Alkmaar and Almere City FC, the earliest from December 2023. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent in our data was on 18 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AZ Alkmaar won AZ Alkmaar 4-1 Almere City FC on 9 Dec 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AZ Alkmaar have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
AZ Alkmaar
2
Draws
0
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Almere City FC?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, AZ Alkmaar have won 2, Almere City FC have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and Almere City FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 May 2025: AZ Alkmaar 1-1 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and Almere City FC?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AZ Alkmaar 52%, Almere City FC 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (AZ Alkmaar) and 48% (Almere City FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AZ Alkmaar keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Almere City FC in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AZ Alkmaar and Almere City FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of AZ Alkmaar's recent matches and 39% of Almere City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AZ Alkmaar and Almere City FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 48% of Almere City FC's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and Almere City FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of AZ Alkmaar's recent matches and 79% of Almere City FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AZ Alkmaar and Almere City FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar and Almere City FC finished level at 1-1 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 1.53 xG and Almere City FC 0.81 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 0.94 / defence 0.83 against Almere City FC attack 0.73 / defence 1.02, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 53% | Draw 29% | Almere City FC 18%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 64%, Almere City FC 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Almere City FC's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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