Heracles 1-4 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Feyenoord (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Heracles face Feyenoord.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Feyenoord travel to Asito Stadion to take on Heracles. The game is scheduled for Saturday 3 May 2025, 17:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Heracles — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Heracles's home record at Asito Stadion: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Heracles are significantly better at Asito Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Feyenoord stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Feyenoord have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Feyenoord are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Feyenoord, who boast 5 victories compared to 0 for Heracles.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2024, ended 2–5 with Feyenoord winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Feyenoord have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 4.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Heracles in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Feyenoord in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 55% versus Feyenoord 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heracles 61% | Feyenoord 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.38 xG and Feyenoord 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 1.101 / defence 0.962 | Feyenoord attack 1.324 / defence 0.784. League average goals — home 1.600 / away 1.270. Feyenoord's defence strength of 0.784 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Feyenoord have an above-average attack strength of 1.324 — the away xG of 1.62 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 64 Heracles games / 64 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 32% | Draw 26% | Feyenoord 42%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Feyenoord 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Feyenoord at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Feyenoord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Heracles 80% | Feyenoord 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Asito Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 3 May 2025, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 32% | Draw 26% | Feyenoord 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Heracles 1.38 / Feyenoord 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 1.101 / def 0.962 | Feyenoord attack 1.324 / def 0.784 | league avg home 1.600 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Feyenoord xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs Feyenoord kick off?
Heracles vs Feyenoord kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 3 May 2025 at Asito Stadion.
What was the final score in Heracles vs Feyenoord?
Heracles 1 - 4 Feyenoord.
Where is Heracles vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at Asito Stadion.
What competition is Heracles vs Feyenoord part of?
Heracles vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 32% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Heracles and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Feyenoord?
Record (5 meetings): Heracles 0W | Draws 0 | Feyenoord 5W.
What form are Heracles and Feyenoord in?
Heracles (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Feyenoord (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Heracles's attack rating (1.10) and Feyenoord's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Feyenoord's attack versus Heracles's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
32%
3.17
26%
3.78
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Heracles xG
Total xG
3.00
1.62
Feyenoord xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
20%
5.05
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
6%
16.00
11%
9.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.1 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.1 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.7 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Heracles and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Heracles and 1.62 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs Feyenoord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Heracles come into this having played 64 games, going 17W 17D 30L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, Feyenoord sit at 2.28 PPG from 64 outings (44W 14D 6L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Feyenoord carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.22 PPG clear of Heracles — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Heracles's home form reads 12W 11D 9L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — Heracles are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Feyenoord have taken 2.22 points per game from 32 outings (21W 8D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Heracles are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.97 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.50 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Feyenoord in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Current Season
Feyenoord
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 17W 17D 30L in their last 64 games (1.06 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 44W 14D 6L in their last 64 (2.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or Feyenoord away?
Feyenoord's away record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 1.47 PPG; Feyenoord away: 2.22 PPG.
Have Heracles or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Heracles have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Feyenoord have won the last 8 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2025, when Feyenoord won 0-7 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Heracles's record when hosting Feyenoord specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Heracles
0
Draws
8
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Feyenoord?
From 8 meetings on record, Heracles have won 0, Feyenoord have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Feyenoord 4-2 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 66%, Feyenoord 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Heracles and 62% for Feyenoord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play Feyenoord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Heracles's games and 62% of Feyenoord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heracles vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Heracles's matches and 62% of Feyenoord's.
Do Heracles and Feyenoord tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Feyenoord run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Heracles.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Heracles 1-4 at Asito Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.38 xG and Feyenoord 1.62 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Feyenoord outscored their 1.62 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 1.10 / defence 0.96 against Feyenoord attack 1.32 / defence 0.78, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 32% | Draw 26% | Feyenoord 42%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 61%, Feyenoord 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Feyenoord's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 1.06. Form held, and they took the win. Heracles (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Feyenoord (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.34 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.