Groningen 2-2 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Groningen at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Groningen vs PEC Zwolle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 13 as Groningen welcome PEC Zwolle to Euroborg. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 November 2025 at 15:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Groningen — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Groningen at Euroborg this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, PEC Zwolle stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Groningen have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Groningen register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, PEC Zwolle in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Groningen, 1 for PEC Zwolle and 3 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2025, ended 0–2 with PEC Zwolle winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Groningen trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
PEC Zwolle trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 52% versus PEC Zwolle 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 50% | PEC Zwolle 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 2.31 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.921 / defence 0.822 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.018 / defence 1.446. League average goals — home 1.731 / away 1.465. PEC Zwolle bring a strong defensive rating of 1.446 — this is suppressing Groningen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Groningen games / 46 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 62% | Draw 19% | PEC Zwolle 19%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 1.61 | Draw 5.26 | PEC Zwolle 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Groningen (62%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.31 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Groningen as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.53 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Groningen 60% | PEC Zwolle 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Nov 2025, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 62% | Draw 19% | PEC Zwolle 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 64% | xG Groningen 2.31 / PEC Zwolle 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.921 / def 0.822 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.018 / def 1.446 | league avg home 1.731 / away 1.465 • Poisson stance: Groningen (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.23
PEC Zwolle xG
64%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Groningen vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 23 November 2025 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?
Groningen 2 - 2 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Groningen vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Groningen vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 62% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 19% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Groningen and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and PEC Zwolle?
Record (4 meetings): Groningen 0W | Draws 3 | PEC Zwolle 1W.
What form are Groningen and PEC Zwolle in?
Groningen (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Groningen's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against PEC Zwolle's defensive record (1.45x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.31. The same calculation in reverse, PEC Zwolle's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
62%
1.62
19%
5.20
19%
5.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Groningen xG
Total xG
3.53
1.23
PEC Zwolle xG
1.62
62%
Home win
5.20
19%
Draw
5.21
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
10%
10.03
Win to Nil
18%
5.54
2%
52.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Groningen and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Groningen and 1.23 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Groningen's recent record stands at 16W 10D 20L from 46 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PEC Zwolle, meanwhile, have gone 13W 14D 19L across 46 games — 1.15 PPG, with L-D-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Groningen on 1.26 PPG, PEC Zwolle on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Groningen have managed 11W 7D 5L from 23 games — 1.74 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — Groningen are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
PEC Zwolle's away record stands at 4W 9D 10L across 23 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Groningen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Groningen are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 1.24 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 16W 10D 20L in their last 46 games (1.26 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 13W 14D 19L in their last 46 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or PEC Zwolle away?
Groningen's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.74 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Groningen's record when hosting PEC Zwolle specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Groningen
5
Draws
1
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and PEC Zwolle?
From 6 meetings on record, Groningen have won 0, PEC Zwolle have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when PEC Zwolle 1-1 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and PEC Zwolle?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 44%, PEC Zwolle 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Groningen) and 56% (PEC Zwolle).
On the defensive side: Groningen keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Groningen have failed to score in 30% of games; PEC Zwolle in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play PEC Zwolle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Groningen's recent matches and 65% of PEC Zwolle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Groningen vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Groningen's recent games and 56% of PEC Zwolle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Groningen and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Groningen and PEC Zwolle share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen and PEC Zwolle finished level at 2-2 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 13, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 2.31 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.23 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.92 / defence 0.82 against PEC Zwolle attack 1.02 / defence 1.45, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 62% | Draw 19% | PEC Zwolle 19%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 50%, PEC Zwolle 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Groningen 1.26 PPG, PEC Zwolle 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Groningen (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.