Fortuna Sittard 1-0 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortuna Sittard at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Heracles travel to Fortuna Sittard Stadion to take on Fortuna Sittard. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 March 2025, 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Fortuna Sittard have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Sittard at Fortuna Sittard Stadion this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Heracles stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heracles's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fortuna Sittard 1.10 PPG, Heracles 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Fortuna Sittard, 2 for Heracles and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Fortuna Sittard trading profile (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Heracles trading profile (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Sittard 47% versus Heracles 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Sittard 59% | Heracles 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Sittard 1.62 xG and Heracles 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.786 / defence 1.295 | Heracles attack 0.816 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 1.685 / away 1.276. Fortuna Sittard's attack strength of 0.786 is below the league average — the 1.62 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Heracles bring a strong defensive rating of 1.226 — this is suppressing Fortuna Sittard's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Fortuna Sittard games / 58 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 43% | Draw 26% | Heracles 31%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Sittard 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Heracles 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fortuna Sittard as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortuna Sittard offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. This conflicts with form data: Fortuna Sittard 40% | Heracles 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Mar 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 43% | Draw 26% | Heracles 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Fortuna Sittard 1.62 / Heracles 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.786 / def 1.295 | Heracles attack 0.816 / def 1.226 | league avg home 1.685 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Sittard (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Fortuna Sittard xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Heracles xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles kick off?
Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 8 March 2025 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What was the final score in Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles?
Fortuna Sittard 1 - 0 Heracles.
Where is Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What competition is Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles part of?
Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Sittard a 43% chance of winning, Heracles a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Sittard the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Fortuna Sittard and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Heracles?
Record (5 meetings): Fortuna Sittard 1W | Draws 2 | Heracles 2W.
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Heracles in?
Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Heracles (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fortuna Sittard's attack at 0.79x the league average against Heracles's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus Fortuna Sittard's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Sittard Win
43%
2.31
26%
3.92
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Fortuna Sittard xG
Total xG
2.97
1.35
Heracles xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
11%
8.89
6%
16.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.2 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Fortuna Sittard and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.35 for Heracles, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fortuna Sittard's recent record stands at 17W 16D 25L from 58 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Fortuna Sittard is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Heracles, meanwhile, have gone 15W 15D 28L across 58 games — 1.03 PPG, with D-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fortuna Sittard on 1.16 PPG, Heracles on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Fortuna Sittard have managed 12W 6D 10L from 28 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Heracles's away record stands at 5W 4D 19L across 28 trips, a 0.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortuna Sittard come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fortuna Sittard are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.26 scored and 2.05 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
Heracles
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Heracles in coming into this match?
Fortuna Sittard have gone 17W 16D 25L in their last 58 games (1.16 PPG), while Heracles have gone 15W 15D 28L in their last 58 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Sittard at home or Heracles away?
Fortuna Sittard's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Sittard at home: 1.50 PPG; Heracles away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fortuna Sittard and Heracles runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Nov 2023, when Fortuna Sittard won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortuna Sittard's record when hosting Heracles specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Fortuna Sittard
3
Draws
3
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Heracles?
From 8 meetings on record, Fortuna Sittard have won 2, Heracles have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Sittard and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Heracles 2-1 Fortuna Sittard.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Sittard and Heracles?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Sittard 50%, Heracles 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Fortuna Sittard and 64% for Heracles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortuna Sittard have failed to score in 32% of games; Heracles in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Sittard home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Sittard play Heracles?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Fortuna Sittard's recent matches and 43% of Heracles's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Fortuna Sittard's matches and 64% of Heracles's.
Do Fortuna Sittard and Heracles tend to score early?
Fortuna Sittard have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Heracles in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fortuna Sittard edge out Heracles 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Sittard beat Heracles 1-0 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 1.62 xG and Heracles 1.35 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Heracles landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.79 / defence 1.29 against Heracles attack 0.82 / defence 1.23, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 43% | Draw 26% | Heracles 31%, with Fortuna Sittard to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 59%, Heracles 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Heracles's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortuna Sittard 1.16 PPG, Heracles 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortuna Sittard win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Heracles (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.