Feyenoord 4-0 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Feyenoord (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Feyenoord face PEC Zwolle.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Feyenoord and PEC Zwolle meet at Stadion Feijenoord in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Friday 25 April 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Feyenoord's overall Eredivisie record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Feyenoord's home record at Stadion Feijenoord: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
PEC Zwolle (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
PEC Zwolle away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Feyenoord's favour (2.30 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Feyenoord have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, PEC Zwolle in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Across 5 previous meetings, Feyenoord are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2024, ended 5–1 with Feyenoord winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Feyenoord and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Feyenoord — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
PEC Zwolle — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feyenoord 57% versus PEC Zwolle 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 65% | PEC Zwolle 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 2.34 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.260 / defence 0.932 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.987 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.627 / away 1.321. Feyenoord carry an above-average attack strength of 1.260 — their λ of 2.34 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 63 Feyenoord games / 63 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 62% | Draw 20% | PEC Zwolle 18%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.61 | Draw 5.00 | PEC Zwolle 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (62%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.34 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Feyenoord at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.55 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Feyenoord 70% | PEC Zwolle 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadion Feijenoord • Kick-off: Friday 25 Apr 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 62% | Draw 20% | PEC Zwolle 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 64% | xG Feyenoord 2.34 / PEC Zwolle 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.260 / def 0.932 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.987 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.627 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.34
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
1.22
PEC Zwolle xG
64%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feyenoord vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Feyenoord vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 25 April 2025 at Stadion Feijenoord.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs PEC Zwolle?
Feyenoord 4 - 0 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Feyenoord vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Feijenoord.
What competition is Feyenoord vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Feyenoord vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 62% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 18% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Feyenoord and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Feyenoord vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and PEC Zwolle?
Record (5 meetings): Feyenoord 5W | Draws 0 | PEC Zwolle 0W.
What form are Feyenoord and PEC Zwolle in?
Feyenoord (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Feyenoord's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against PEC Zwolle's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.34. Flip it around — PEC Zwolle's attack (0.99x) against Feyenoord's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.2%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
62%
1.61
20%
5.02
18%
5.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.34
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
3.55
1.22
PEC Zwolle xG
1.61
62%
Home win
5.02
20%
Draw
5.52
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
10%
10.37
Win to Nil
18%
5.44
2%
57.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 2.34 expected goals for Feyenoord and 1.22 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs PEC Zwolle?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Feyenoord come into this having played 63 games, going 43W 14D 6L for 2.27 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, PEC Zwolle sit at 1.06 PPG from 63 outings (16W 19D 28L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-D across their last five.
Feyenoord carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.21 PPG clear of PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Feyenoord's home form reads 22W 6D 3L across 31 games on their own ground, a 2.32 PPG return.
Away from home, PEC Zwolle have taken 0.90 points per game from 31 outings (5W 13D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Feyenoord are averaging 2.48 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 1.27 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PEC Zwolle in 62%.
Defensively: Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Current Season
PEC Zwolle
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feyenoord and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 43W 14D 6L in their last 63 games (2.27 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 16W 19D 28L in their last 63 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or PEC Zwolle away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.32 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or PEC Zwolle been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, PEC Zwolle in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Feyenoord have won the last 9 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won 0-7 on 13 Sep 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Feyenoord have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
9
Feyenoord
0
Draws
0
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and PEC Zwolle?
From 9 meetings on record, Feyenoord have won 9, PEC Zwolle have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when PEC Zwolle 0-7 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and PEC Zwolle?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feyenoord 52%, PEC Zwolle 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Feyenoord and 55% for PEC Zwolle. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; PEC Zwolle in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feyenoord play PEC Zwolle?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Feyenoord's games and 64% of PEC Zwolle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Feyenoord vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Feyenoord's matches and 55% of PEC Zwolle's.
Do Feyenoord and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Feyenoord have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Feyenoord run riot with a 4-0 hammering of PEC Zwolle.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat PEC Zwolle 4-0 at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 30, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 2.34 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.22 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Feyenoord beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PEC Zwolle landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.26 / defence 0.93 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.99 / defence 1.14, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 62% | Draw 20% | PEC Zwolle 18%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 65%, PEC Zwolle 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.06. That form edge translated into the three points. Feyenoord (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.61 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.