Cambuur 0-4 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Excelsior at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambuur vs Excelsior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cambuur and Excelsior meet at Kooi Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Friday 7 August 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cambuur's overall Eredivisie record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Cambuur haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Cambuur's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Kooi Stadion this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Cambuur are significantly better at Kooi Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Excelsior have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Excelsior haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Excelsior away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Cambuur register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Excelsior in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Cambuur, 2 for Excelsior and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jan 2025, ended 1–0 with Cambuur winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Cambuur half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Excelsior half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cambuur 71% and Excelsior 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 62% | Excelsior 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.54 xG and Excelsior 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Excelsior attack 1.094 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.810 / away 1.309. Data: 0 Cambuur games / 34 Excelsior games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Cambuur 33% | Draw 30% | Excelsior 37%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Excelsior 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Excelsior at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Excelsior if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.19 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 80% | Excelsior 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Excelsior | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Kooi Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 7 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 33% | Draw 30% | Excelsior 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 66% | xG Cambuur 1.54 / Excelsior 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Excelsior attack 1.094 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.810 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Excelsior xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Excelsior kick off?
Cambuur vs Excelsior kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 7 August 2026 at Kooi Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs Excelsior?
Cambuur 0 - 4 Excelsior.
Where is Cambuur vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at Kooi Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Excelsior part of?
Cambuur vs Excelsior is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 33% chance of winning, Excelsior a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Cambuur and Excelsior will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Excelsior?
Record (4 meetings): Cambuur 2W | Draws 0 | Excelsior 2W.
What form are Cambuur and Excelsior in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Cambuur (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cambuur's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Excelsior's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. Flip it around — Excelsior's attack (1.09x) against Cambuur's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from 0/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
33%
3.03
30%
3.39
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Cambuur xG
Total xG
3.19
1.65
Excelsior xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.50
34%
BTTS No
2.99
Clean Sheet
19%
5.19
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
6%
15.70
8%
12.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.8 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.5 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.1 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.65 for Excelsior, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Excelsior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cambuur's recent record stands at 20W 9D 5L from 34 games, a 2.03 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-W in the last five. Cambuur haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Excelsior, meanwhile, have gone 10W 8D 16L across 34 games — 1.12 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five. Excelsior haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cambuur by 0.91 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Excelsior heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Cambuur have managed 11W 5D 1L from 17 games — 2.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Excelsior's away record stands at 5W 5D 7L across 17 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cambuur are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 1.26 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Excelsior in 65%.
Last 34 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Pre-Season
Excelsior
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Excelsior in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 20W 9D 5L in their last 34 games (2.03 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 10W 8D 16L in their last 34 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Excelsior away?
Cambuur's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 2.24 PPG; Excelsior away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Excelsior won 0-4 on 7 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cambuur have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Excelsior — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Cambuur
0
Draws
3
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Excelsior?
From 5 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 2, Excelsior have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Excelsior last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when Cambuur 0-4 Excelsior.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and Excelsior?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Cambuur, 76% for Excelsior — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Cambuur and 71% for Excelsior. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Excelsior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Cambuur's games and 76% of Excelsior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs Excelsior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Cambuur's matches and 71% of Excelsior's.
Do Cambuur and Excelsior tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Excelsior in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Excelsior run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Cambuur.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior beat Cambuur 0-4 at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.54 xG and Excelsior 1.65 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Cambuur fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Excelsior outscored their 1.65 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Excelsior attack 1.09 / defence 1.00, drawn from 0/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 33% | Draw 30% | Excelsior 37%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 62%, Excelsior 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Excelsior's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Excelsior winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Excelsior (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.