AZ Alkmaar 1-1 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
NAC Breda make the trip to AFAS Stadion to face AZ Alkmaar in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Thursday 24 April 2025 at 17:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AZ Alkmaar have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
AZ Alkmaar's home record at AFAS Stadion: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — AZ Alkmaar are significantly better at AFAS Stadion than their overall form suggests.
NAC Breda (all games): 0W 6D 4L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, NAC Breda have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward AZ Alkmaar. A 0.60 PPG lead over NAC Breda (1.20 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — AZ Alkmaar lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2024, ended 2–1 with AZ Alkmaar winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
AZ Alkmaar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
NAC Breda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AZ Alkmaar 52% versus NAC Breda 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AZ Alkmaar 64% | NAC Breda 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 1.87 xG and NAC Breda 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 0.915 / defence 0.877 | NAC Breda attack 0.759 / defence 1.234. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.291. NAC Breda bring a strong defensive rating of 1.234 — this is suppressing AZ Alkmaar's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 AZ Alkmaar games / 29 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 61% | Draw 23% | NAC Breda 16%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | NAC Breda 6.25. The model has a clear lean to AZ Alkmaar (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: AZ Alkmaar 50% | NAC Breda 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Thursday 24 Apr 2025, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 61% | Draw 23% | NAC Breda 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 49% | xG AZ Alkmaar 1.87 / NAC Breda 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 0.915 / def 0.877 | NAC Breda attack 0.759 / def 1.234 | league avg home 1.655 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
0.86
NAC Breda xG
49%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda kicked off at 17:45 on Thursday 24 April 2025 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda?
AZ Alkmaar 1 - 1 NAC Breda.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 61% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and NAC Breda?
Record (1 meetings): AZ Alkmaar 1W | Draws 0 | NAC Breda 0W.
What form are AZ Alkmaar and NAC Breda in?
AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. NAC Breda (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AZ Alkmaar's attack at 0.92x the league average against NAC Breda's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.87 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — NAC Breda's attack (0.76x) against AZ Alkmaar's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 63/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
61%
1.65
23%
4.36
16%
6.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
2.73
0.86
NAC Breda xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
6.12
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
15%
6.48
Win to Nil
26%
3.89
3%
39.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 10.5 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 0.86 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AZ Alkmaar come into this having played 63 games, going 32W 15D 16L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-L.
On the other side, NAC Breda sit at 1.37 PPG from 63 outings (23W 17D 23L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.76 PPG for AZ Alkmaar against 1.37 for NAC Breda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
AZ Alkmaar's home form reads 17W 5D 8L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.87 PPG return.
Away from home, NAC Breda have taken 1.10 points per game from 30 outings (9W 6D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.51 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda in 63%.
Defensively: AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Current Season
NAC Breda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AZ Alkmaar and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 32W 15D 16L in their last 63 games (1.76 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 23W 17D 23L in their last 63 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or NAC Breda away?
AZ Alkmaar's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 1.87 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.10 PPG.
Have AZ Alkmaar or NAC Breda been keeping clean sheets recently?
AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, NAC Breda in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AZ Alkmaar have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
AZ Alkmaar
2
Draws
0
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and NAC Breda?
From 4 meetings on record, AZ Alkmaar have won 2, NAC Breda have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when AZ Alkmaar 3-3 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and NAC Breda?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AZ Alkmaar 50%, NAC Breda 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for AZ Alkmaar and 60% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AZ Alkmaar keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; NAC Breda in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AZ Alkmaar play NAC Breda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of AZ Alkmaar's recent matches and 57% of NAC Breda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 60% of NAC Breda's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and NAC Breda tend to score early?
AZ Alkmaar have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AZ Alkmaar and NAC Breda share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 30, as AZ Alkmaar and NAC Breda drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 1.87 xG and NAC Breda 0.86 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. AZ Alkmaar fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 0.92 / defence 0.88 against NAC Breda attack 0.76 / defence 1.23, drawn from 63/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 61% | Draw 23% | NAC Breda 16%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 64%, NAC Breda 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
NAC Breda's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AZ Alkmaar 1.76 PPG, NAC Breda 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.