Willem II 2-1 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Willem II at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Willem II vs FC OSS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Willem II and FC OSS meet at Koning Willem II Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 3 October 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Willem II's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Willem II have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Koning Willem II Stadion, Willem II have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Willem II are significantly better at Koning Willem II Stadion than their overall form suggests.
FC OSS (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. FC OSS have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, FC OSS have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Willem II 2W, FC OSS 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2023, ended 4–0 with Willem II winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Willem II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
FC OSS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 60% versus FC OSS 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 60% | FC OSS 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.66 xG and FC OSS 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 1.075 / defence 1.009 | FC OSS attack 0.754 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.562 / away 1.393. Data: 45 Willem II games / 45 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 51% | Draw 24% | FC OSS 24%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | FC OSS 4.17. Willem II hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Willem II as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Willem II if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 60% | FC OSS 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 3 Oct 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 51% | Draw 24% | FC OSS 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Willem II 1.66 / FC OSS 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 1.075 / def 1.009 | FC OSS attack 0.754 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.562 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: Willem II (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.06
FC OSS xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs FC OSS kick off?
Willem II vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 3 October 2023 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs FC OSS?
Willem II 2 - 1 FC OSS.
Where is Willem II vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs FC OSS part of?
Willem II vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 51% chance of winning, FC OSS a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Willem II and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and FC OSS?
Record (2 meetings): Willem II 2W | Draws 0 | FC OSS 0W.
What form are Willem II and FC OSS in?
Willem II (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. FC OSS (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Willem II's attack at 1.07x the league average against FC OSS's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC OSS's attack (0.75x) against Willem II's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
51%
1.95
24%
4.09
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.71
1.06
FC OSS xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
19%
5.23
Win to Nil
18%
5.63
5%
21.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.6 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Willem II and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Willem II and 1.06 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Willem II's recent record stands at 22W 13D 10L from 45 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Willem II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC OSS, meanwhile, have gone 11W 8D 26L across 45 games — 0.91 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for FC OSS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Willem II by 0.85 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC OSS heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Willem II have managed 15W 2D 5L from 22 games — 2.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC OSS's away record stands at 4W 5D 13L across 22 trips, a 0.77 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Willem II are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.11 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Willem II have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Early Season
FC OSS
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 22W 13D 10L in their last 45 games (1.76 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 11W 8D 26L in their last 45 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or FC OSS away?
Willem II's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 2.14 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.77 PPG.
Have Willem II or FC OSS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Willem II have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, FC OSS in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Willem II won 0-5 on 12 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Willem II have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC OSS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Willem II
1
Draws
0
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and FC OSS?
From 6 meetings on record, Willem II have won 5, FC OSS have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when FC OSS 1-3 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and FC OSS?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 59%, FC OSS 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Willem II and 54% for FC OSS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; FC OSS in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play FC OSS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Willem II's recent matches and 50% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Willem II vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Willem II's matches and 54% of FC OSS's.
Do Willem II and FC OSS tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Willem II edge out FC OSS 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat FC OSS 2-1 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.66 xG and FC OSS 1.06 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 1.07 / defence 1.01 against FC OSS attack 0.75 / defence 0.99, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 51% | Draw 24% | FC OSS 24%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 60%, FC OSS 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
FC OSS's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.