Roda 4-1 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Roda at 73% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Roda vs Den Bosch encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 7 as Roda welcome Den Bosch to Parkstad Limburg Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 22 September 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Roda have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Roda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Roda have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Den Bosch — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Den Bosch have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Den Bosch away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 3.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Roda carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Roda, 2 for Den Bosch and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2023, ended 0–1 with Den Bosch winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Roda in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Den Bosch in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 57% versus Den Bosch 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 54% | Den Bosch 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 2.46 xG and Den Bosch 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 1.197 / defence 0.832 | Den Bosch attack 0.778 / defence 1.196. League average goals — home 1.716 / away 1.280. Data: 44 Roda games / 44 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 73% | Draw 16% | Den Bosch 11%. Fair-value odds: Roda 1.37 | Draw 6.25 | Den Bosch 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Roda (73%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.29 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Roda 50% | Den Bosch 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 22 Sep 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 73% | Draw 16% | Den Bosch 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 52% | xG Roda 2.46 / Den Bosch 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 1.197 / def 0.832 | Den Bosch attack 0.778 / def 1.196 | league avg home 1.716 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Roda (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.46
Roda xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Den Bosch xG
52%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Den Bosch kick off?
Roda vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 22 September 2023 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Den Bosch?
Roda 4 - 1 Den Bosch.
Where is Roda vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Den Bosch part of?
Roda vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 73% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 11% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Roda and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Den Bosch?
Record (4 meetings): Roda 2W | Draws 0 | Den Bosch 2W.
What form are Roda and Den Bosch in?
Roda (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Den Bosch (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Roda's attack rating (1.20) and Den Bosch's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 2.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Den Bosch's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 3-0 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
73%
1.37
16%
6.16
11%
9.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.46
Roda xG
Total xG
3.29
0.83
Den Bosch xG
1.37
73%
Home win
6.16
16%
Draw
9.38
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
9%
11.66
Win to Nil
32%
3.13
1%
109.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.2 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.2 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Roda and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 2.46 expected goals for Roda and 0.83 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Den Bosch?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Roda's recent record stands at 17W 7D 20L from 44 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Roda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Den Bosch, meanwhile, have gone 12W 5D 27L across 44 games — 0.93 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Den Bosch, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Roda on 1.32 PPG, Den Bosch on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Roda have managed 9W 4D 8L from 21 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Den Bosch's away record stands at 3W 2D 16L across 21 trips, a 0.52 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.93 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Den Bosch's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Roda are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.20 scored and 2.16 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Early Season
Den Bosch
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 17W 7D 20L in their last 44 games (1.32 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 12W 5D 27L in their last 44 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Den Bosch away?
Roda's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.48 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Oct 2025, when Roda won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Roda's record when hosting Den Bosch specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Roda
4
Draws
2
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 4, Den Bosch have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Den Bosch 2-2 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Den Bosch?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 67%, Den Bosch 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Roda) and 62% (Den Bosch). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Den Bosch?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Roda's recent matches and 43% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Roda vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Roda's matches and 62% of Den Bosch's.
Do Roda and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Roda run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Den Bosch.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat Den Bosch 4-1 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 2.46 xG and Den Bosch 0.83 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Roda beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 1.20 / defence 0.83 against Den Bosch attack 0.78 / defence 1.20, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 73% | Draw 16% | Den Bosch 11%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 73%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 54%, Den Bosch 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Den Bosch's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.32 PPG, Den Bosch 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock. Roda (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. Den Bosch (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.