VVV Venlo 1-2 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Den Bosch at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VVV Venlo vs Den Bosch encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 12 as VVV Venlo welcome Den Bosch to Covebo Stadion - De Koel -. Kick-off is set for Friday 25 October 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, VVV Venlo have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for VVV Venlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VVV Venlo's home record at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Den Bosch stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Den Bosch's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Den Bosch — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
VVV Venlo hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 1 for Den Bosch, with 1 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2024, ended 2–3 with Den Bosch winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both VVV Venlo and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
VVV Venlo trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Den Bosch trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VVV Venlo 57% versus Den Bosch 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VVV Venlo 59% | Den Bosch 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VVV Venlo 1.31 xG and Den Bosch 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VVV Venlo attack 0.863 / defence 1.140 | Den Bosch attack 0.966 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.470. Data: 49 VVV Venlo games / 49 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VVV Venlo 29% | Draw 29% | Den Bosch 43%. Fair-value odds: VVV Venlo 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | Den Bosch 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.31 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
VVV Venlo dominate the H2H record, yet Den Bosch are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Den Bosch as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Den Bosch offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: VVV Venlo 40% | Den Bosch 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VVV Venlo vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Covebo Stadion - De Koel - • Kick-off: Friday 25 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VVV Venlo 29% | Draw 29% | Den Bosch 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG VVV Venlo 1.31 / Den Bosch 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: VVV Venlo attack 0.863 / def 1.140 | Den Bosch attack 0.966 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.470 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
VVV Venlo xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Den Bosch xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VVV Venlo vs Den Bosch kick off?
VVV Venlo vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 25 October 2024 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What was the final score in VVV Venlo vs Den Bosch?
VVV Venlo 1 - 2 Den Bosch.
Where is VVV Venlo vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What competition is VVV Venlo vs Den Bosch part of?
VVV Venlo vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win VVV Venlo vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives VVV Venlo a 29% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in VVV Venlo vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both VVV Venlo and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will VVV Venlo vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Den Bosch?
Record (6 meetings): VVV Venlo 4W | Draws 1 | Den Bosch 1W.
What form are VVV Venlo and Den Bosch in?
VVV Venlo (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Den Bosch (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about VVV Venlo vs Den Bosch?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
VVV Venlo's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Den Bosch's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, Den Bosch's attack versus VVV Venlo's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
29%
3.46
29%
3.51
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
VVV Venlo xG
Total xG
2.93
1.62
Den Bosch xG
3.46
29%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
20%
5.04
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
6%
17.46
12%
8.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.3 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.4 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VVV Venlo vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are VVV Venlo and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for VVV Venlo and 1.62 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for VVV Venlo vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, VVV Venlo have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 15W 11D 23L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for VVV Venlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Den Bosch's form line: 14W 12D 23L from 49 games, 1.10 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-L. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: VVV Venlo on 1.14 PPG, Den Bosch on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, VVV Venlo have posted 1.54 PPG from 24 outings (11W 4D 9L). That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — VVV Venlo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Den Bosch have gone 7W 4D 13L from 24 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VVV Venlo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
VVV Venlo are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.24 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VVV Venlo
Blended
Den Bosch
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VVV Venlo and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
VVV Venlo have gone 15W 11D 23L in their last 49 games (1.14 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 14W 12D 23L in their last 49 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VVV Venlo at home or Den Bosch away?
VVV Venlo's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VVV Venlo at home: 1.54 PPG; Den Bosch away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VVV Venlo and Den Bosch runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Mar 2023, when VVV Venlo won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VVV Venlo's record when hosting Den Bosch specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
VVV Venlo
2
Draws
3
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, VVV Venlo have won 5, Den Bosch have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VVV Venlo and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2025, when Den Bosch 0-1 VVV Venlo.
Who has won more matches between VVV Venlo and Den Bosch?
VVV Venlo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VVV Venlo 62%, Den Bosch 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (VVV Venlo) and 50% (Den Bosch).
On the defensive side: Den Bosch in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VVV Venlo home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VVV Venlo play Den Bosch?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of VVV Venlo's recent matches and 38% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is VVV Venlo vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of VVV Venlo's recent games and 50% of Den Bosch's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VVV Venlo and Den Bosch tend to score early?
VVV Venlo have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Den Bosch edge out VVV Venlo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch beat VVV Venlo 1-2 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -, Regular Season - 12, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VVV Venlo 1.31 xG and Den Bosch 1.62 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VVV Venlo attack 0.86 / defence 1.14 against Den Bosch attack 0.97 / defence 1.02, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VVV Venlo 29% | Draw 29% | Den Bosch 43%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VVV Venlo 59%, Den Bosch 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VVV Venlo's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Den Bosch's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VVV Venlo 1.14 PPG, Den Bosch 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Den Bosch win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.