Roda 3-2 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Roda at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Roda vs Emmen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parkstad Limburg Stadion plays host to Roda versus Emmen in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Friday 16 February 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Roda have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Roda have posted 7W 2D 1L at Parkstad Limburg Stadion — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Emmen's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Emmen's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Roda's 1.80 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Emmen's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Roda 1W, Emmen 2W, 0D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2023, ended 1–0 with Roda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Roda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Emmen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 55% versus Emmen 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 50% | Emmen 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 2.07 xG and Emmen 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 1.081 / defence 0.656 | Emmen attack 0.743 / defence 1.151. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.300. Roda's defence rating of 0.656 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 63 Roda games / 24 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 70% | Draw 21% | Emmen 9%. Fair-value odds: Roda 1.43 | Draw 4.76 | Emmen 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Roda (70%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Roda 50% | Emmen 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 16 Feb 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 70% | Draw 21% | Emmen 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 42% | xG Roda 2.07 / Emmen 0.63 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 1.081 / def 0.656 | Emmen attack 0.743 / def 1.151 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Roda (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Roda xG
Expected Goals
0.63
Emmen xG
42%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Emmen kick off?
Roda vs Emmen kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 16 February 2024 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Emmen?
Roda 3 - 2 Emmen.
Where is Roda vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Emmen part of?
Roda vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 70% chance of winning, Emmen a 9% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Roda and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Emmen?
Record (3 meetings): Roda 1W | Draws 0 | Emmen 2W.
What form are Roda and Emmen in?
Roda (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Emmen (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Roda's attack at 1.08x the league average against Emmen's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 2.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Emmen's attack (0.74x) against Roda's defence (0.66x) — and the away total comes out at 0.63.
These ratings are built from 63/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 3-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
70%
1.43
21%
4.77
9%
11.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
3 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Roda xG
Total xG
2.71
0.63
Emmen xG
1.43
70%
Home win
4.77
21%
Draw
11.03
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
13%
7.96
Win to Nil
37%
2.69
1%
87.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 8.8 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.3 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Roda and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Roda and 0.63 for Emmen, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Emmen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Roda come into this having played 62 games, going 24W 15D 23L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-W. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Emmen sit at 1.08 PPG from 62 outings (17W 16D 29L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Roda against 1.08 for Emmen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Roda's home form reads 17W 6D 9L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.78 PPG return.
Away from home, Emmen have taken 0.91 points per game from 32 outings (8W 5D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Roda are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.15 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
Emmen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Emmen in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 24W 15D 23L in their last 62 games (1.40 PPG), while Emmen have gone 17W 16D 29L in their last 62 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Emmen away?
Roda's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.78 PPG; Emmen away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Roda have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Emmen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Roda
2
Draws
2
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Emmen?
From 8 meetings on record, Roda have won 4, Emmen have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Roda 2-2 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Emmen?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 59%, Emmen 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Roda and 69% for Emmen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emmen in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Emmen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Roda's games and 62% of Emmen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Roda vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Roda's matches and 69% of Emmen's.
Do Roda and Emmen tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Emmen in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Roda edge out Emmen 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat Emmen 3-2 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 2.07 xG and Emmen 0.63 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Roda beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Emmen outscored their 0.63 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 1.08 / defence 0.66 against Emmen attack 0.74 / defence 1.15, drawn from 63/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 70% | Draw 21% | Emmen 9%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 50%, Emmen 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (62 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Emmen's trading profile (62 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.40 PPG, Emmen 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock. Roda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.72 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Emmen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.