Emmen 2-0 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cambuur at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Emmen vs Cambuur encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
De Oude Meerdijk plays host to Emmen versus Cambuur in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Friday 23 February 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Emmen's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Emmen's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at De Oude Meerdijk this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Emmen are significantly better at De Oude Meerdijk than their overall form suggests.
Cambuur have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Cambuur arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Emmen, 0 for Cambuur and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Emmen half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Cambuur half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 53% versus Cambuur 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 57% | Cambuur 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.47 xG and Cambuur 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.828 / defence 1.079 | Cambuur attack 1.312 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.659 / away 1.325. Cambuur have an above-average attack strength of 1.312 — the away xG of 1.88 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 25 Emmen games / 26 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 29% | Draw 25% | Cambuur 46%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 3.45 | Draw 4.00 | Cambuur 2.17. Cambuur hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.88) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cambuur at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cambuur if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.34 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Emmen 50% | Cambuur 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Cambuur | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Friday 23 Feb 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 29% | Draw 25% | Cambuur 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Emmen 1.47 / Cambuur 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.828 / def 1.079 | Cambuur attack 1.312 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.659 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.88
Cambuur xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs Cambuur kick off?
Emmen vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 23 February 2024 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Cambuur?
Emmen 2 - 0 Cambuur.
Where is Emmen vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Cambuur part of?
Emmen vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 29% chance of winning, Cambuur a 46% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Emmen and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Cambuur?
Record (3 meetings): Emmen 1W | Draws 2 | Cambuur 0W.
What form are Emmen and Cambuur in?
Emmen (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Cambuur (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Emmen's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Cambuur's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. Flip it around — Cambuur's attack (1.31x) against Emmen's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.88.
These ratings are built from 25/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
29%
3.45
25%
4.00
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Emmen xG
Total xG
3.34
1.88
Cambuur xG
3.45
29%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.50
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
15%
6.53
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
4%
22.52
11%
9.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.7 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.1 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Emmen and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Emmen and 1.88 for Cambuur, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Emmen's recent record stands at 16W 15D 29L from 60 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cambuur, meanwhile, have gone 16W 10D 34L across 60 games — 0.97 PPG, with L-D-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Emmen against 0.97 for Cambuur. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Emmen have managed 8W 10D 10L from 28 games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cambuur's away record stands at 8W 5D 15L across 28 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Emmen are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.43 scored and 2.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur in 60%.
Last 60 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Blended
Cambuur
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 16W 15D 29L in their last 60 games (1.05 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 16W 10D 34L in their last 60 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Cambuur away?
Emmen's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.21 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Cambuur go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Emmen won 3-0 on 4 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Emmen have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cambuur — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Emmen
2
Draws
2
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Cambuur?
From 8 meetings on record, Emmen have won 4, Cambuur have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 24 March 2026, when Emmen 2-4 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Cambuur?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 43%, Cambuur 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Emmen) and 68% (Cambuur). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Emmen have failed to score in 32% of games; Cambuur in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play Cambuur?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Emmen's games and 68% of Cambuur's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Emmen vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Emmen's matches and 68% of Cambuur's.
Do Emmen and Cambuur tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Emmen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cambuur.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat Cambuur 2-0 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 27, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.47 xG and Cambuur 1.88 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Cambuur landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.83 / defence 1.08 against Cambuur attack 1.31 / defence 1.07, drawn from 25/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 29% | Draw 25% | Cambuur 46%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Emmen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 57%, Cambuur 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (60 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Cambuur's trading profile (60 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Emmen 1.05 PPG, Cambuur 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Emmen win broke the near-deadlock. Emmen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.