NAC Breda 0-3 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heracles at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this NAC Breda vs Heracles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
NAC Breda host Heracles at Rat Verlegh Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 12 May 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
NAC Breda — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Rat Verlegh Stadion, NAC Breda have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Heracles stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Heracles have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — NAC Breda at 2.20 PPG versus Heracles's 2.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. NAC Breda register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Heracles in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for NAC Breda, 1 for Heracles and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2022, ended 1–5 with Heracles winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
NAC Breda in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Heracles in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 61% versus Heracles 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 61% | Heracles 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 2.01 xG and Heracles 2.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 1.194 / defence 1.129 | Heracles attack 1.376 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.318. Heracles have an above-average attack strength of 1.376 — the away xG of 2.05 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 74 NAC Breda games / 36 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 39% | Draw 21% | Heracles 40%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.56 | Draw 4.76 | Heracles 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 4.06. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.06 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (2.01 / 2.05) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Heracles at 40% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 39% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 4.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 77% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 75% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 70% | Heracles 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 39% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Heracles | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 12 May 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 39% | Draw 21% | Heracles 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 75% | xG NAC Breda 2.01 / Heracles 2.05 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 1.194 / def 1.129 | Heracles attack 1.376 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Heracles (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
2.05
Heracles xG
75%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Heracles kick off?
NAC Breda vs Heracles kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 12 May 2023 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Heracles?
NAC Breda 0 - 3 Heracles.
Where is NAC Breda vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Heracles part of?
NAC Breda vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 39% chance of winning, Heracles a 40% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both NAC Breda and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Heracles?
Record (1 meetings): NAC Breda 0W | Draws 0 | Heracles 1W.
What form are NAC Breda and Heracles in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Heracles (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from NAC Breda's attack rating (1.19) and Heracles's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 2.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 2.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.0%. Close behind: 2-2 (7.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
39%
2.56
21%
4.87
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
2 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
4.06
2.05
Heracles xG
2.56
39%
Home win
4.87
21%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.33
25%
BTTS No
4.07
Clean Sheet
13%
7.75
13%
7.49
Win to Nil
5%
19.84
5%
18.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.0%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for NAC Breda and 2.05 for Heracles, a combined total of 4.06.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Heracles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
NAC Breda come into this having played 72 games, going 33W 14D 25L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Heracles sit at 1.57 PPG from 72 outings (34W 11D 27L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: NAC Breda on 1.57 PPG, Heracles on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
NAC Breda's home form reads 19W 9D 8L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Heracles have taken 1.17 points per game from 36 outings (13W 3D 20L). That's a step down from their 1.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Heracles's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
NAC Breda are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.83 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 72 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Current Season
Heracles
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Heracles in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 33W 14D 25L in their last 72 games (1.57 PPG), while Heracles have gone 34W 11D 27L in their last 72 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Heracles away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.83 PPG; Heracles away: 1.17 PPG.
Have NAC Breda or Heracles been keeping clean sheets recently?
NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Heracles in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
NAC Breda go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Nov 2022, when Heracles won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NAC Breda's record when hosting Heracles specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
NAC Breda
1
Draws
3
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Heracles?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 2, Heracles have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Heracles 0-1 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Heracles?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 58%, Heracles 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (NAC Breda) and 61% (Heracles). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Heracles in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Heracles?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of NAC Breda's recent matches and 47% of Heracles's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NAC Breda vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of NAC Breda's matches and 61% of Heracles's.
Do NAC Breda and Heracles tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Heracles in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Heracles run riot with a 0-3 hammering of NAC Breda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heracles beat NAC Breda 0-3 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 37, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 2.01 xG and Heracles 2.05 xG, a combined 4.06. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. NAC Breda fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Heracles outscored their 2.05 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 1.19 / defence 1.13 against Heracles attack 1.38 / defence 0.98, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 39% | Draw 21% | Heracles 40%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 61%, Heracles 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Heracles's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.57 PPG, Heracles 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heracles win broke the near-deadlock. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Heracles (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.