Jong PSV U21 3-1 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jong PSV U21 at 62% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 38 as Jong PSV U21 welcome Jong Utrecht to PSV Campus De Herdgang. Kick-off is set for Friday 9 May 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong PSV U21 stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Jong PSV U21 at PSV Campus De Herdgang this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jong Utrecht — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Jong Utrecht have gone 1W 0D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 3.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Jong PSV U21 0.60 PPG, Jong Utrecht 0.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Jong PSV U21, 2 for Jong Utrecht and 1 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2024, ended 2–0 with Jong PSV U21 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Jong PSV U21 trading profile (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
Jong Utrecht trading profile (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong PSV U21 68% versus Jong Utrecht 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong PSV U21 76% | Jong Utrecht 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 2.52 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.970 / defence 1.674 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.663 / defence 1.529. League average goals — home 1.695 / away 1.250. Jong Utrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.529 — this is suppressing Jong PSV U21's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 75 Jong PSV U21 games / 75 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 62% | Draw 19% | Jong Utrecht 20%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 1.61 | Draw 5.26 | Jong Utrecht 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Jong PSV U21 (62%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.90. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.90 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.52 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong PSV U21 at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong PSV U21 90% | Jong Utrecht 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: PSV Campus De Herdgang • Kick-off: Friday 9 May 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 62% | Draw 19% | Jong Utrecht 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 69% | xG Jong PSV U21 2.52 / Jong Utrecht 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.970 / def 1.674 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.663 / def 1.529 | league avg home 1.695 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.52
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Jong Utrecht xG
69%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 9 May 2025 at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht?
Jong PSV U21 3 - 1 Jong Utrecht.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 62% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 20% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht?
Record (7 meetings): Jong PSV U21 4W | Draws 1 | Jong Utrecht 2W.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jong PSV U21's attack at 0.97x the league average against Jong Utrecht's defence at 1.53x — combine the two and it projects 2.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Utrecht's attack versus Jong PSV U21's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.0%), 3-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
62%
1.62
19%
5.37
20%
5.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.4%
Home win
1 – 1
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.52
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
3.90
1.39
Jong Utrecht xG
1.62
62%
Home win
5.37
19%
Draw
5.11
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.25
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
8%
12.38
Win to Nil
15%
6.48
2%
63.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 7.4 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.52 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.39 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 3.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 75 outings, Jong PSV U21 have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 18W 13D 44L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Jong Utrecht's form line: 9W 22D 44L from 75 games, 0.65 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong PSV U21 on 0.89 PPG, Jong Utrecht on 0.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Jong PSV U21 have posted 0.92 PPG from 37 outings (9W 7D 21L).
On the road, Jong Utrecht have gone 2W 9D 26L from 37 away games — 0.41 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong PSV U21 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 2.21 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 0.83 scored and 2.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 75 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Current Season
Jong Utrecht
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 18W 13D 44L in their last 75 games (0.89 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 9W 22D 44L in their last 75 (0.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or Jong Utrecht away?
Jong PSV U21's home record (0.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 0.92 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 0.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 19 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jong PSV U21's record when hosting Jong Utrecht specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Jong PSV U21
2
Draws
3
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 5, Jong Utrecht have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2026, when Jong Utrecht 5-3 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht?
Jong PSV U21 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Jong PSV U21 at 78%, Jong Utrecht at 54%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for Jong PSV U21 and 65% for Jong Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play Jong Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Jong PSV U21's games and 54% of Jong Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 65% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong PSV U21 cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Jong Utrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong PSV U21 beat Jong Utrecht 3-1 at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Regular Season - 38, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 2.52 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.39 xG, a combined 3.90. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 0.97 / defence 1.67 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.66 / defence 1.53, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 62% | Draw 19% | Jong Utrecht 20%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 76%, Jong Utrecht 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 0.89 PPG, Jong Utrecht 0.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong PSV U21 win broke the near-deadlock. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.