Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong PSV U21 at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
De Graafschap make the trip to De Herdgang to face Jong PSV U21 in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Monday 7 December 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jong PSV U21's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong PSV U21's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at De Herdgang this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
De Graafschap (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Jong PSV U21 against 1.00 for De Graafschap. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 10 meetings, De Graafschap have the stronger historical record — 8 wins to Jong PSV U21's 1, with 1 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2026, ended 1–2 with De Graafschap winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. De Graafschap have won 8 of 10 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Jong PSV U21 — key trading statistics (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong PSV U21 65% and De Graafschap 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong PSV U21 63% | De Graafschap 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.51 xG and De Graafschap 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.775 / defence 0.856 | De Graafschap attack 0.910 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.840 / away 1.459. Jong PSV U21's attack strength of 0.775 is below the league average — the 1.51 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 49 Jong PSV U21 games / 49 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 46% | Draw 26% | De Graafschap 29%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | De Graafschap 3.45. Jong PSV U21 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong PSV U21 at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong PSV U21 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Jong PSV U21 50% | De Graafschap 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: De Herdgang • Kick-off: Monday 7 Dec 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 46% | Draw 26% | De Graafschap 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Jong PSV U21 1.51 / De Graafschap 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.775 / def 0.856 | De Graafschap attack 0.910 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.840 / away 1.459 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
1.14
De Graafschap xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Monday 7 December 2026 at De Herdgang.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 46% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap?
Record (10 meetings): Jong PSV U21 1W | Draws 1 | De Graafschap 8W.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Jong PSV U21's attack rating (0.78) and De Graafschap's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (0.91x) against Jong PSV U21's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
46%
2.18
26%
3.90
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
2.64
1.14
De Graafschap xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
15%
6.80
6%
15.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.2 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.14 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jong PSV U21's recent record stands at 20W 9D 20L from 49 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 20W 12D 17L across 49 games — 1.47 PPG, with L-W-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Jong PSV U21 against 1.47 for De Graafschap. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Jong PSV U21 have managed 12W 5D 8L from 25 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 9W 8D 8L across 25 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.80 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; De Graafschap in 76%.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 20W 9D 20L in their last 49 games (1.41 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 20W 12D 17L in their last 49 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or De Graafschap away?
Jong PSV U21's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.64 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: De Graafschap have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong PSV U21 have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Jong PSV U21
1
Draws
8
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 1, De Graafschap have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Jong PSV U21 1-2 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 56% for Jong PSV U21, 76% for De Graafschap — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Jong PSV U21 and 72% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Jong PSV U21's games and 76% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 72% of De Graafschap's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.