Jong AZ 0-2 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Jong PSV U21 at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Jong PSV U21 travel to AFAS Trainingscomplex to take on Jong AZ. The game is scheduled for Monday 13 April 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong AZ stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Jong AZ at AFAS Trainingscomplex this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at AFAS Trainingscomplex this season.
Jong PSV U21 — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Jong PSV U21 away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Jong AZ 1.10 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jong AZ register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Jong PSV U21 in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Jong AZ, 4 for Jong PSV U21 and 2 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Jong PSV U21 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Jong AZ trading profile (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Jong PSV U21 trading profile (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong AZ 66% and Jong PSV U21 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong AZ 70% | Jong PSV U21 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.64 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 0.897 / defence 1.294 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.999 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.626 / away 1.469. Data: 73 Jong AZ games / 73 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 34% | Draw 22% | Jong PSV U21 44%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 2.94 | Draw 4.55 | Jong PSV U21 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.90) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jong PSV U21 as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong PSV U21 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.54 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jong AZ 70% | Jong PSV U21 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 13 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 34% | Draw 22% | Jong PSV U21 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG Jong AZ 1.64 / Jong PSV U21 1.90 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 0.897 / def 1.294 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.999 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.626 / away 1.469 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.90
Jong PSV U21 xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 13 April 2026 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21?
Jong AZ 0 - 2 Jong PSV U21.
Where is Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 34% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 44% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21?
Record (9 meetings): Jong AZ 3W | Draws 2 | Jong PSV U21 4W.
What form are Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21 in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Jong AZ's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Jong PSV U21's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. The same calculation in reverse, Jong PSV U21's attack versus Jong AZ's defence, projects 1.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
34%
2.96
22%
4.55
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
3.54
1.90
Jong PSV U21 xG
2.96
34%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.18
Clean Sheet
15%
6.67
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
5%
19.77
9%
11.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.90 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jong AZ's recent record stands at 25W 14D 34L from 73 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-L in the last five.
Jong PSV U21, meanwhile, have gone 24W 11D 38L across 73 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong AZ on 1.22 PPG, Jong PSV U21 on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jong AZ have managed 9W 8D 19L from 36 games — 0.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong PSV U21's away record stands at 11W 5D 20L across 36 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Jong AZ are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.62 scored and 1.99 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Jong PSV U21 in 66%.
Last 73 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Current Season
Jong PSV U21
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 25W 14D 34L in their last 73 games (1.22 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 24W 11D 38L in their last 73 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
Jong PSV U21's away record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 0.97 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21 runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jong PSV U21 have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Mar 2024, when Jong AZ won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong AZ's record when hosting Jong PSV U21 specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Jong AZ
2
Draws
5
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 3, Jong PSV U21 have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Jong AZ 0-2 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21?
Jong PSV U21 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 67%, Jong PSV U21 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Jong AZ and 64% for Jong PSV U21. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong PSV U21 in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play Jong PSV U21?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Jong AZ's games and 58% of Jong PSV U21's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Jong AZ's matches and 64% of Jong PSV U21's.
Do Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong PSV U21 cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Jong AZ.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong PSV U21 beat Jong AZ 0-2 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 36, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.64 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.90 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Jong AZ fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 0.90 / defence 1.29 against Jong PSV U21 attack 1.00 / defence 1.12, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 34% | Draw 22% | Jong PSV U21 44%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 70%, Jong PSV U21 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.22 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong PSV U21 win broke the near-deadlock. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.