Jong AZ 3-0 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong AZ vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong AZ host De Graafschap at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 23 October 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jong AZ — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong AZ's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at AFAS Trainingscomplex this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, De Graafschap have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Jong AZ at 1.40 PPG versus De Graafschap's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Jong AZ have won 1, De Graafschap 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2023, ended 0–1 with De Graafschap winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Jong AZ in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
De Graafschap in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 58% versus De Graafschap 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 56% | De Graafschap 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.98 xG and De Graafschap 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 1.096 / defence 0.912 | De Graafschap attack 1.162 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.695 / away 1.363. Data: 48 Jong AZ games / 48 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 50% | Draw 22% | De Graafschap 28%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 2.00 | Draw 4.55 | De Graafschap 3.57. Jong AZ hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.98 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong AZ are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong AZ offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.42 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Jong AZ 30% | De Graafschap 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 23 Oct 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 50% | Draw 22% | De Graafschap 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Jong AZ 1.98 / De Graafschap 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 1.096 / def 0.912 | De Graafschap attack 1.162 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.695 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.44
De Graafschap xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs De Graafschap kick off?
Jong AZ vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 23 October 2023 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs De Graafschap?
Jong AZ 3 - 0 De Graafschap.
Where is Jong AZ vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs De Graafschap part of?
Jong AZ vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 50% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 28% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Jong AZ and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and De Graafschap?
Record (4 meetings): Jong AZ 1W | Draws 1 | De Graafschap 2W.
What form are Jong AZ and De Graafschap in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Jong AZ's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against De Graafschap's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.98. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus Jong AZ's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
50%
2.00
22%
4.53
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
6.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
3.42
1.44
De Graafschap xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
24%
4.24
14%
7.22
Win to Nil
12%
8.50
4%
25.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 9.3 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.44 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, Jong AZ have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 18W 11D 19L record — W-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap's form line: 20W 9D 19L from 48 games, 1.44 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong AZ on 1.35 PPG, De Graafschap on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Jong AZ have posted 1.71 PPG from 24 outings (11W 8D 5L).
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 8W 5D 11L from 24 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong AZ come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jong AZ are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.60 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 18W 11D 19L in their last 48 games (1.35 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 20W 9D 19L in their last 48 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or De Graafschap away?
Jong AZ's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.71 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong AZ and De Graafschap runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
De Graafschap go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2026, when De Graafschap won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong AZ's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jong AZ
2
Draws
6
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 2, De Graafschap have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when De Graafschap 5-0 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 58%, De Graafschap 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Jong AZ and 75% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Jong AZ's games and 71% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong AZ vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Jong AZ's matches and 75% of De Graafschap's.
Do Jong AZ and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jong AZ run riot with a 3-0 hammering of De Graafschap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ beat De Graafschap 3-0 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 10, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.98 xG and De Graafschap 1.44 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Jong AZ beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. De Graafschap landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.10 / defence 0.91 against De Graafschap attack 1.16 / defence 1.06, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 50% | Draw 22% | De Graafschap 28%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 56%, De Graafschap 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
De Graafschap's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.35 PPG, De Graafschap 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong AZ win broke the near-deadlock. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.