Groningen 0-0 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Emmen at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Groningen vs Emmen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Euroborg plays host to Groningen versus Emmen in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Monday 23 October 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Groningen have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Groningen at Euroborg this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Euroborg this season.
Emmen's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Emmen's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Emmen are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Groningen 0W, Emmen 0W, 2D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Groningen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
Emmen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 50% versus Emmen 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 59% | Emmen 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.25 xG and Emmen 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.824 / defence 0.991 | Emmen attack 1.102 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.695 / away 1.363. Data: 10 Groningen games / 10 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 32% | Draw 26% | Emmen 43%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Emmen 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Emmen as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Emmen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Groningen 30% | Emmen 70%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Monday 23 Oct 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 32% | Draw 26% | Emmen 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Groningen 1.25 / Emmen 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.824 / def 0.991 | Emmen attack 1.102 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.695 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Emmen (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Emmen xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs Emmen kick off?
Groningen vs Emmen kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 23 October 2023 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs Emmen?
Groningen 0 - 0 Emmen.
Where is Groningen vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs Emmen part of?
Groningen vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 32% chance of winning, Emmen a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Groningen and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Emmen?
Record (2 meetings): Groningen 0W | Draws 2 | Emmen 0W.
What form are Groningen and Emmen in?
Groningen (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Emmen (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Groningen's attack at 0.82x the league average against Emmen's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Emmen's attack (1.10x) against Groningen's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
32%
3.15
26%
3.88
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.74
1.49
Emmen xG
3.15
32%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
23%
4.43
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
7%
13.97
12%
8.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.6 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.5 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Groningen and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Groningen and 1.49 for Emmen, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Groningen's recent record stands at 8W 7D 29L from 44 games, a 0.70 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Emmen, meanwhile, have gone 12W 12D 20L across 44 games — 1.09 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.70 PPG for Groningen against 1.09 for Emmen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Groningen have managed 5W 4D 13L from 22 games — 0.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Emmen's away record stands at 7W 3D 12L across 22 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Groningen are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.98 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.20 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Blended
Emmen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and Emmen in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 8W 7D 29L in their last 44 games (0.70 PPG), while Emmen have gone 12W 12D 20L in their last 44 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or Emmen away?
Emmen's away record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 0.86 PPG; Emmen away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Groningen won 0-3 on 1 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Groningen have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Emmen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Groningen
3
Draws
0
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Emmen?
From 4 meetings on record, Groningen have won 1, Emmen have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2024, when Emmen 0-3 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and Emmen?
Groningen have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 46%, Emmen 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Groningen and 64% for Emmen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play Emmen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Groningen's games and 68% of Emmen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Groningen vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Groningen's matches and 64% of Emmen's.
Do Groningen and Emmen tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Emmen in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Groningen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Euroborg, Regular Season - 10, as Groningen and Emmen drew 0-0 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.25 xG and Emmen 1.49 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Groningen fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Emmen landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.82 / defence 0.99 against Emmen attack 1.10 / defence 0.90, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 32% | Draw 26% | Emmen 43%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 59%, Emmen 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Emmen's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Groningen 0.70 PPG, Emmen 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Groningen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.