Helmond Sport 0-2 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Willem II at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Helmond Sport vs Willem II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Willem II travel to GS Staalwerken Stadion to take on Helmond Sport. The game is scheduled for Friday 29 March 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Helmond Sport stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Helmond Sport's home record at GS Staalwerken Stadion: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Willem II have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Willem II's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Helmond Sport 1.60 PPG, Willem II 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Helmond Sport register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Willem II in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Willem II have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Helmond Sport's 0 victories.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2023, ended 1–4 with Willem II winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Willem II have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 5.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Helmond Sport in-play tendencies (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Willem II in-play tendencies (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helmond Sport 56% versus Willem II 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helmond Sport 54% | Willem II 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helmond Sport 1.27 xG and Willem II 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helmond Sport attack 1.082 / defence 0.984 | Willem II attack 1.307 / defence 0.723. League average goals — home 1.623 / away 1.306. Willem II's defence strength of 0.723 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Willem II have an above-average attack strength of 1.307 — the away xG of 1.68 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 69 Helmond Sport games / 69 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helmond Sport 28% | Draw 25% | Willem II 46%. Fair-value odds: Helmond Sport 3.57 | Draw 4.00 | Willem II 2.17. Willem II hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Willem II at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Willem II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Helmond Sport 80% | Willem II 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helmond Sport vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: GS Staalwerken Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 29 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helmond Sport 28% | Draw 25% | Willem II 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Helmond Sport 1.27 / Willem II 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Helmond Sport attack 1.082 / def 0.984 | Willem II attack 1.307 / def 0.723 | league avg home 1.623 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Willem II (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Helmond Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Willem II xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helmond Sport vs Willem II kick off?
Helmond Sport vs Willem II kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 29 March 2024 at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What was the final score in Helmond Sport vs Willem II?
Helmond Sport 0 - 2 Willem II.
Where is Helmond Sport vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What competition is Helmond Sport vs Willem II part of?
Helmond Sport vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Helmond Sport vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Helmond Sport a 28% chance of winning, Willem II a 46% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helmond Sport vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Helmond Sport and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Helmond Sport vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and Willem II?
Record (3 meetings): Helmond Sport 0W | Draws 0 | Willem II 3W.
What form are Helmond Sport and Willem II in?
Helmond Sport (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Willem II (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Helmond Sport's attack rating (1.08) and Willem II's defence rating (0.72), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Willem II's attack versus Helmond Sport's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
28%
3.52
25%
3.97
46%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Helmond Sport xG
Total xG
2.95
1.68
Willem II xG
3.52
28%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.15
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
19%
5.35
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
5%
18.87
13%
7.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.8 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.2 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.1 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helmond Sport vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Helmond Sport and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Helmond Sport and 1.68 for Willem II, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Helmond Sport vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 69 outings, Helmond Sport have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 22W 18D 29L record — D-D-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Willem II's form line: 39W 17D 13L from 69 games, 1.94 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Willem II are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Helmond Sport.
Venue Form
On home soil, Helmond Sport have posted 1.59 PPG from 34 outings (15W 9D 10L).
On the road, Willem II have gone 14W 13D 7L from 34 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Helmond Sport are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.94 scored and 1.01 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II in 61%.
Last 69 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helmond Sport
Current Season
Willem II
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helmond Sport and Willem II in coming into this match?
Helmond Sport have gone 22W 18D 29L in their last 69 games (1.22 PPG), while Willem II have gone 39W 17D 13L in their last 69 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helmond Sport at home or Willem II away?
Willem II's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helmond Sport at home: 1.59 PPG; Willem II away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Helmond Sport or Willem II been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helmond Sport have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Willem II in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 21 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Feb 2023, when Willem II won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Helmond Sport's record when hosting Willem II specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Helmond Sport
1
Draws
5
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and Willem II?
From 6 meetings on record, Helmond Sport have won 0, Willem II have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Helmond Sport and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 21 December 2025, when Helmond Sport 2-2 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Helmond Sport and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helmond Sport 65%, Willem II 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Helmond Sport) and 50% (Willem II).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helmond Sport home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helmond Sport play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Helmond Sport's games and 59% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Helmond Sport vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Helmond Sport's recent games and 50% of Willem II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helmond Sport and Willem II tend to score early?
Helmond Sport have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Willem II in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Willem II cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Helmond Sport.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat Helmond Sport 0-2 at GS Staalwerken Stadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helmond Sport 1.27 xG and Willem II 1.68 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Helmond Sport fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helmond Sport attack 1.08 / defence 0.98 against Willem II attack 1.31 / defence 0.72, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helmond Sport 28% | Draw 25% | Willem II 46%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helmond Sport 54%, Willem II 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helmond Sport's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Willem II's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward. Willem II (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.