De Graafschap 2-1 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Jong AZ travel to Stadion De Vijverberg to take on De Graafschap. The game is scheduled for Friday 29 March 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, De Graafschap have posted 6W 1D 3L at Stadion De Vijverberg — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong AZ have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong AZ have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: De Graafschap 1.60 PPG, Jong AZ 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, De Graafschap have won 2, Jong AZ 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2023, ended 0–3 with Jong AZ winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Jong AZ in-play and half-time data (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 54% versus Jong AZ 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 59% | Jong AZ 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.77 xG and Jong AZ 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.975 / defence 0.944 | Jong AZ attack 0.849 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.623 / away 1.306. Data: 69 De Graafschap games / 69 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 54% | Draw 25% | Jong AZ 22%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Jong AZ 4.55. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 50% | Jong AZ 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 29 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 54% | Draw 25% | Jong AZ 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG De Graafschap 1.77 / Jong AZ 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.975 / def 0.944 | Jong AZ attack 0.849 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.623 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Jong AZ xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Jong AZ kick off?
De Graafschap vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 29 March 2024 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
De Graafschap 2 - 1 Jong AZ.
Where is De Graafschap vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Jong AZ part of?
De Graafschap vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 54% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both De Graafschap and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Jong AZ?
Record (5 meetings): De Graafschap 2W | Draws 1 | Jong AZ 2W.
What form are De Graafschap and Jong AZ in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Jong AZ (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates De Graafschap's attack at 0.97x the league average against Jong AZ's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
54%
1.86
25%
4.06
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.81
1.05
Jong AZ xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
17%
5.85
Win to Nil
19%
5.31
4%
26.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.1 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.05 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
De Graafschap come into this having played 69 games, going 31W 11D 27L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Jong AZ sit at 1.41 PPG from 69 outings (27W 16D 26L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: De Graafschap on 1.51 PPG, Jong AZ on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
De Graafschap's home form reads 18W 5D 11L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.74 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong AZ have taken 1.00 points per game from 34 outings (9W 7D 18L). That's a step down from their 1.41 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jong AZ's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
De Graafschap are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.57 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ in 61%.
Last 69 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Current Season
Jong AZ
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 31W 11D 27L in their last 69 games (1.51 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 27W 16D 26L in their last 69 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Jong AZ away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.74 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.00 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or Jong AZ been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Jong AZ in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
De Graafschap have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2026, when De Graafschap won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
De Graafschap's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
De Graafschap
2
Draws
2
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 6, Jong AZ have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when De Graafschap 5-0 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Jong AZ?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 44%, Jong AZ 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (De Graafschap) and 65% (Jong AZ). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; De Graafschap have failed to score in 26% of games; Jong AZ in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Jong AZ?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 65% of Jong AZ's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is De Graafschap vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of De Graafschap's matches and 65% of Jong AZ's.
Do De Graafschap and Jong AZ tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as De Graafschap edge out Jong AZ 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Jong AZ 2-1 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 32, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.77 xG and Jong AZ 1.05 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.97 / defence 0.94 against Jong AZ attack 0.85 / defence 1.12, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 54% | Draw 25% | Jong AZ 22%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 59%, Jong AZ 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Jong AZ's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.51 PPG, Jong AZ 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.