FC OSS 3-0 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates FC OSS at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC OSS vs Dordrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dordrecht make the trip to Frans Heesen Stadion to face FC OSS in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Friday 18 September 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
FC OSS's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC OSS have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC OSS's home record at Frans Heesen Stadion: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dordrecht have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Dordrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dordrecht's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward FC OSS. A 0.70 PPG lead over Dordrecht (1.50 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — FC OSS register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Dordrecht in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Dordrecht hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Mar 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Dordrecht have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
FC OSS half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 79% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games).
Dordrecht half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC OSS 66% and Dordrecht 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 64% | Dordrecht 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 2.20 xG and Dordrecht 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.914 / defence 1.001 | Dordrecht attack 0.876 / defence 1.268. League average goals — home 1.899 / away 1.685. Dordrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.268 — this is suppressing FC OSS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 FC OSS games / 44 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 54% | Draw 20% | Dordrecht 26%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 1.85 | Draw 5.00 | Dordrecht 3.85. FC OSS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.68. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.68 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.20 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
Dordrecht lead the H2H ledger, but FC OSS carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, FC OSS are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC OSS 80% | Dordrecht 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 18 Sep 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 54% | Draw 20% | Dordrecht 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 69% | xG FC OSS 2.20 / Dordrecht 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.914 / def 1.001 | Dordrecht attack 0.876 / def 1.268 | league avg home 1.899 / away 1.685 • Poisson stance: FC OSS (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Dordrecht xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs Dordrecht kick off?
FC OSS vs Dordrecht kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 18 September 2026 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs Dordrecht?
FC OSS 3 - 0 Dordrecht.
Where is FC OSS vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs Dordrecht part of?
FC OSS vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 54% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 26% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making FC OSS the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both FC OSS and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Dordrecht?
Record (9 meetings): FC OSS 1W | Draws 3 | Dordrecht 5W.
What form are FC OSS and Dordrecht in?
FC OSS (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Dordrecht (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC OSS's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Dordrecht's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.20. Flip it around — Dordrecht's attack (0.88x) against FC OSS's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC OSS Win
54%
1.85
20%
4.90
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.20
FC OSS xG
Total xG
3.68
1.48
Dordrecht xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.90
20%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.19
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
11%
9.03
Win to Nil
12%
8.10
3%
35.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are FC OSS and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.20 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.48 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 3.68.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC OSS's recent record stands at 12W 11D 21L from 44 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC OSS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dordrecht, meanwhile, have gone 13W 12D 19L across 44 games — 1.16 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Dordrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for FC OSS against 1.16 for Dordrecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC OSS have managed 7W 3D 11L from 21 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dordrecht's away record stands at 5W 7D 9L across 21 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
FC OSS are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.30 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC OSS have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Dordrecht in 66%.
Last 44 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Early Season
Dordrecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 12W 11D 21L in their last 44 games (1.07 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 13W 12D 19L in their last 44 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or Dordrecht away?
FC OSS's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.14 PPG; Dordrecht away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 18 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dordrecht won 0-3 on 29 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC OSS have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC OSS
3
Draws
5
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 2, Dordrecht have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2026, when FC OSS 3-0 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and Dordrecht?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for FC OSS, 76% for Dordrecht — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for FC OSS and 71% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of FC OSS's games and 76% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC OSS vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of FC OSS's matches and 71% of Dordrecht's.
Do FC OSS and Dordrecht tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC OSS run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Dordrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC OSS beat Dordrecht 3-0 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 2.20 xG and Dordrecht 1.48 xG, a combined 3.68. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Dordrecht landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.91 / defence 1.00 against Dordrecht attack 0.88 / defence 1.27, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 54% | Draw 20% | Dordrecht 26%, with FC OSS to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 64%, Dordrecht 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Dordrecht's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC OSS 1.07 PPG, Dordrecht 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC OSS win broke the near-deadlock. FC OSS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.