Excelsior 3-2 MVV – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Excelsior at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Excelsior vs MVV encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
MVV make the trip to Van Donge & De Roo Stadion to face Excelsior in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Friday 18 October 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Excelsior's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Excelsior have gone 8W 0D 2L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
MVV have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for MVV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, MVV have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Excelsior. A 0.90 PPG lead over MVV (2.00 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Excelsior 1W, MVV 0W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Excelsior half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 85% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
MVV half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Excelsior 68% and MVV 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Excelsior 83% | MVV 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 2.17 xG and MVV 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 1.448 / defence 1.038 | MVV attack 0.707 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.462. Excelsior carry an above-average attack strength of 1.448 — their λ of 2.17 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 9 Excelsior games / 48 MVV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 61% | Draw 23% | MVV 16%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | MVV 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Excelsior (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.17 / 1.07) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Excelsior are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.24 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Excelsior 50% | MVV 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs MVV | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 18 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 61% | Draw 23% | MVV 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 60% | xG Excelsior 2.17 / MVV 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 1.448 / def 1.038 | MVV attack 0.707 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.462 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (61%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.07
MVV xG
60%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs MVV kick off?
Excelsior vs MVV kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 18 October 2024 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs MVV?
Excelsior 3 - 2 MVV.
Where is Excelsior vs MVV being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs MVV part of?
Excelsior vs MVV is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs MVV?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 61% chance of winning, MVV a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs MVV?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Excelsior and MVV will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs MVV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and MVV?
Record (2 meetings): Excelsior 1W | Draws 1 | MVV 0W.
What form are Excelsior and MVV in?
Excelsior (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. MVV (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Excelsior vs MVV?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Excelsior's attack at 1.45x the league average against MVV's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 2.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — MVV's attack (0.71x) against Excelsior's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 9/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
61%
1.65
23%
4.30
16%
6.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Excelsior xG
Total xG
3.24
1.07
MVV xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
6.21
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
11%
8.75
Win to Nil
21%
4.82
2%
54.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.5 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs MVV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Excelsior and MVV expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.07 for MVV, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs MVV?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, Excelsior have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 14W 13D 20L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
MVV's form line: 17W 13D 17L from 47 games, 1.36 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-W. The sample for MVV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Excelsior against 1.36 for MVV. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Excelsior have posted 1.61 PPG from 23 outings (10W 7D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Excelsior are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, MVV have gone 7W 6D 10L from 23 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Excelsior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Excelsior are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 2.04 conceded per game recently; MVV are on 1.53 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Excelsior have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Blended
MVV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and MVV in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 14W 13D 20L in their last 47 games (1.17 PPG), while MVV have gone 17W 13D 17L in their last 47 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or MVV away?
Excelsior's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.61 PPG; MVV away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Excelsior have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Excelsior have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against MVV — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Excelsior
1
Draws
0
MVV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and MVV?
From 4 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 3, MVV have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and MVV last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2025, when MVV 1-2 Excelsior.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and MVV?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 65%, MVV 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Excelsior and 70% for MVV. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: MVV in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / MVV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play MVV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Excelsior's games and 61% of MVV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Excelsior vs MVV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Excelsior's matches and 70% of MVV's.
Do Excelsior and MVV tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, MVV in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Excelsior edge out MVV 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior beat MVV 3-2 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 2.17 xG and MVV 1.07 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Excelsior beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. MVV outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 1.45 / defence 1.04 against MVV attack 0.71 / defence 1.04, drawn from 9/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 61% | Draw 23% | MVV 16%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 83%, MVV 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
MVV's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Excelsior 1.17 PPG, MVV 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Excelsior win broke the near-deadlock. MVV (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.