Excelsior 3-4 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Excelsior at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Excelsior vs FC Eindhoven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Eindhoven make the trip to Van Donge & De Roo Stadion to face Excelsior in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 October 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Excelsior (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Excelsior's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 1L across 5 games at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
FC Eindhoven have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Eindhoven's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 4L across 6 road games this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.67 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Excelsior. A 0.90 PPG lead over FC Eindhoven (2.20 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Excelsior — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
FC Eindhoven — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Excelsior 50% versus FC Eindhoven 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior 67% | FC Eindhoven 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.76 xG and FC Eindhoven 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 1.144 / defence 0.845 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.617 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.412. Data: 12 Excelsior games / 12 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 62% | Draw 23% | FC Eindhoven 15%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 1.61 | Draw 4.35 | FC Eindhoven 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Excelsior (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Excelsior at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Excelsior 40% | FC Eindhoven 33% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 62% | Draw 23% | FC Eindhoven 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 43% | xG Excelsior 1.76 / FC Eindhoven 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 1.144 / def 0.845 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.617 / def 1.197 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
0.74
FC Eindhoven xG
43%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
Excelsior vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs FC Eindhoven?
Excelsior 3 - 4 FC Eindhoven.
Where is Excelsior vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs FC Eindhoven part of?
Excelsior vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 62% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 15% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Excelsior and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and FC Eindhoven?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Excelsior and FC Eindhoven in?
Excelsior (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Excelsior's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against FC Eindhoven's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. Flip it around — FC Eindhoven's attack (0.62x) against Excelsior's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.7%), 1-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
62%
1.62
23%
4.36
15%
6.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Excelsior xG
Total xG
2.49
0.74
FC Eindhoven xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
6.56
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
17%
5.80
Win to Nil
30%
3.38
3%
38.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 10.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Excelsior and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Excelsior and 0.74 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs FC Eindhoven?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 12 outings, Excelsior have picked up 2.08 PPG on a 8W 1D 3L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Eindhoven's form line: 5W 2D 5L from 12 games, 1.42 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-L. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Excelsior are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Eindhoven.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Excelsior have posted 2.00 PPG from 5 outings (3W 1D 1L).
On the road, FC Eindhoven have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 away games — 0.20 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Eindhoven's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Excelsior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Excelsior are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.33 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Excelsior have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Blended
FC Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 8W 1D 3L in their last 12 games (2.08 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 5W 2D 5L in their last 12 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or FC Eindhoven away?
Excelsior's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 2.00 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 0.20 PPG.
Have Excelsior or FC Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
Excelsior have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, FC Eindhoven in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Excelsior have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Eindhoven won 4-1 on 7 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Excelsior have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Eindhoven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Excelsior
0
Draws
2
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and FC Eindhoven?
From 4 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 2, FC Eindhoven have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2025, when FC Eindhoven 1-2 Excelsior.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
FC Eindhoven see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 40%, FC Eindhoven 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Excelsior) and 40% (FC Eindhoven).
On the defensive side: Excelsior keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; FC Eindhoven in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play FC Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Excelsior's recent matches and 40% of FC Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Excelsior vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Excelsior's recent games and 40% of FC Eindhoven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Excelsior and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Eindhoven defy the odds to beat Excelsior 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven beat Excelsior 3-4 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.76 xG and FC Eindhoven 0.74 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Excelsior beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Eindhoven outscored their 0.74 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 1.14 / defence 0.84 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.62 / defence 1.20, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 62% | Draw 23% | FC Eindhoven 15%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a FC Eindhoven win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 67%, FC Eindhoven 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Excelsior arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.42. Form was overturned, with FC Eindhoven winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Excelsior (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.