De Graafschap 3-1 VVV Venlo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 74% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 17 as De Graafschap welcome VVV Venlo to Stadion De Vijverberg. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 December 2024 at 11:15 UTC.
Form Guide
De Graafschap — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Stadion De Vijverberg this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, VVV Venlo have recorded 2W 0D 8L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for VVV Venlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VVV Venlo's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
On current form, De Graafschap have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, De Graafschap have won 2, VVV Venlo 4, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Jan 2024, ended 3–0 with De Graafschap winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
De Graafschap in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
VVV Venlo in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 65% versus VVV Venlo 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 72% | VVV Venlo 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 2.89 xG and VVV Venlo 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.510 / defence 0.946 | VVV Venlo attack 0.810 / defence 1.232. League average goals — home 1.554 / away 1.388. De Graafschap carry an above-average attack strength of 1.510 — their λ of 2.89 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. VVV Venlo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.232 — this is suppressing De Graafschap's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 De Graafschap games / 54 VVV Venlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 74% | Draw 15% | VVV Venlo 11%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 1.35 | Draw 6.67 | VVV Venlo 9.09. The model has a clear lean to De Graafschap (74%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.96. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.96 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.89 / 1.06) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
VVV Venlo lead the H2H ledger, but De Graafschap carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 80% | VVV Venlo 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Dec 2024, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 74% | Draw 15% | VVV Venlo 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 62% | xG De Graafschap 2.89 / VVV Venlo 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.510 / def 0.946 | VVV Venlo attack 0.810 / def 1.232 | league avg home 1.554 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (74%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.89
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.06
VVV Venlo xG
62%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo kick off?
De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo?
De Graafschap 3 - 1 VVV Venlo.
Where is De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo part of?
De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 74% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 11% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both De Graafschap and VVV Venlo will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and VVV Venlo?
Record (6 meetings): De Graafschap 2W | Draws 0 | VVV Venlo 4W.
What form are De Graafschap and VVV Venlo in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. VVV Venlo (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
De Graafschap's attacking strength (1.51x league average) is weighed against VVV Venlo's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.89. The same calculation in reverse, VVV Venlo's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.5%. Close behind: 3-1 (8.2%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
74%
1.35
15%
6.59
11%
9.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
2 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.89
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.96
1.06
VVV Venlo xG
1.35
74%
Home win
6.59
15%
Draw
9.50
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
6%
18.01
Win to Nil
26%
3.90
1%
171.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 2.89 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.06 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 3.96.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, De Graafschap have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 26W 11D 17L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VVV Venlo's form line: 16W 11D 27L from 54 games, 1.09 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. The sample for VVV Venlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, De Graafschap are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against VVV Venlo.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, De Graafschap have posted 2.12 PPG from 26 outings (17W 4D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.65 PPG overall — De Graafschap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, VVV Venlo have gone 5W 7D 14L from 26 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
De Graafschap are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.22 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
VVV Venlo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 26W 11D 17L in their last 54 games (1.65 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 16W 11D 27L in their last 54 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or VVV Venlo away?
De Graafschap's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 2.12 PPG; VVV Venlo away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between De Graafschap and VVV Venlo runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Jan 2024, when De Graafschap won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
De Graafschap's record when hosting VVV Venlo specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
De Graafschap
1
Draws
5
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and VVV Venlo?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 4, VVV Venlo have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and VVV Venlo last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when VVV Venlo 3-3 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and VVV Venlo?
VVV Venlo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 65%, VVV Venlo 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for De Graafschap and 58% for VVV Venlo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VVV Venlo in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play VVV Venlo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of De Graafschap's games and 46% of VVV Venlo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of De Graafschap's matches and 58% of VVV Venlo's.
Do De Graafschap and VVV Venlo tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, VVV Venlo in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
De Graafschap cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over VVV Venlo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat VVV Venlo 3-1 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 17, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 2.89 xG and VVV Venlo 1.06 xG, a combined 3.96. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.51 / defence 0.95 against VVV Venlo attack 0.81 / defence 1.23, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 74% | Draw 15% | VVV Venlo 11%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 74%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 72%, VVV Venlo 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
VVV Venlo's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.09. Form held, and they took the win. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.