De Graafschap 0-0 MVV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours De Graafschap (79%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as De Graafschap face MVV.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees MVV travel to Stadion De Vijverberg to take on De Graafschap. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 March 2025, 17:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
De Graafschap's home record at Stadion De Vijverberg: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
MVV — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
MVV's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
De Graafschap are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of De Graafschap: 4 wins from 7 previous clashes against 1 for MVV, with 2 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both De Graafschap and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
De Graafschap trading profile (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
MVV trading profile (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 63% and MVV 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (De Graafschap 68% | MVV 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 2.76 xG and MVV 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.409 / defence 0.852 | MVV attack 0.687 / defence 1.184. League average goals — home 1.654 / away 1.275. De Graafschap carry an above-average attack strength of 1.409 — their λ of 2.76 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 68 De Graafschap games / 68 MVV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 79% | Draw 13% | MVV 7%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 1.27 | Draw 7.69 | MVV 14.29. The model has a clear lean to De Graafschap (79%) — a 72pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 79% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.50 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: De Graafschap 60% | MVV 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs MVV | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Mar 2025, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 79% | Draw 13% | MVV 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 49% | xG De Graafschap 2.76 / MVV 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.409 / def 0.852 | MVV attack 0.687 / def 1.184 | league avg home 1.654 / away 1.275 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (79%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.76
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
0.75
MVV xG
49%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs MVV kick off?
De Graafschap vs MVV kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 22 March 2025 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs MVV?
De Graafschap 0 - 0 MVV.
Where is De Graafschap vs MVV being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs MVV part of?
De Graafschap vs MVV is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs MVV?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 79% chance of winning, MVV a 7% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs MVV?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both De Graafschap and MVV will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs MVV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and MVV?
Record (7 meetings): De Graafschap 4W | Draws 2 | MVV 1W.
What form are De Graafschap and MVV in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. MVV (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from De Graafschap's attack rating (1.41) and MVV's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 2.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, MVV's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
79%
1.26
13%
7.57
7%
13.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.76
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.50
0.75
MVV xG
1.26
79%
Home win
7.57
13%
Draw
13.37
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
6%
15.77
Win to Nil
38%
2.66
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 8.3 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 8.5 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.5 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs MVV?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and MVV expected to score?
The model projects 2.76 expected goals for De Graafschap and 0.75 for MVV, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs MVV?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 79%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
De Graafschap's recent record stands at 33W 13D 22L from 68 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five.
MVV, meanwhile, have gone 24W 17D 27L across 68 games — 1.31 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: De Graafschap on 1.65 PPG, MVV on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, De Graafschap have managed 22W 4D 8L from 34 games — 2.06 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.65 PPG overall — De Graafschap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
MVV's away record stands at 9W 8D 17L across 34 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
De Graafschap are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; MVV are on 1.56 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 68 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Current Season
MVV
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and MVV in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 33W 13D 22L in their last 68 games (1.65 PPG), while MVV have gone 24W 17D 27L in their last 68 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or MVV away?
De Graafschap's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 2.06 PPG; MVV away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between De Graafschap and MVV runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Apr 2024, when De Graafschap won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
De Graafschap's record when hosting MVV specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
De Graafschap
4
Draws
2
MVV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and MVV?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 4, MVV have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and MVV last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when MVV 3-3 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and MVV?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 62%, MVV 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for De Graafschap and 65% for MVV. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: MVV in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / MVV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play MVV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of De Graafschap's games and 59% of MVV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs MVV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of De Graafschap's matches and 65% of MVV's.
Do De Graafschap and MVV tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, MVV in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at De Graafschap's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap and MVV finished level at 0-0 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 31, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 2.76 xG and MVV 0.75 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. De Graafschap fell 2.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.41 / defence 0.85 against MVV attack 0.69 / defence 1.18, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 79% | Draw 13% | MVV 7%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 79%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 68%, MVV 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
MVV's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.65 PPG, MVV 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. MVV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.