De Graafschap vs Heracles – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heracles at 72%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Heracles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Heracles travel to De Vijverberg to take on De Graafschap. The game is scheduled for Friday 18 December 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, De Graafschap have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
De Graafschap's home record at De Vijverberg: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — De Graafschap are significantly better at De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.
Heracles — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Heracles have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Heracles have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (De Graafschap) versus 1.20 (Heracles). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. De Graafschap register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Heracles in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for De Graafschap, 1 for Heracles and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2023, ended 5–3 with De Graafschap winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
Heracles in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 76% and Heracles 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (De Graafschap 71% | Heracles 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.83 xG and Heracles 3.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.011 / defence 1.397 | Heracles attack 1.564 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. Heracles have an above-average attack strength of 1.564 — the away xG of 3.71 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 De Graafschap games / 4 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 15% | Draw 13% | Heracles 72%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 6.67 | Draw 7.69 | Heracles 1.39. The model has a clear lean to Heracles (72%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 91% | BTTS probability 82% | Total xG 5.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 91% — a total xG of 5.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 82% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 3.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Heracles as the most likely outcome at 72% — clear model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 5.54 combined xG gives a 91% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 82% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 70% | Heracles 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Heracles | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 18 Dec 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 15% | Draw 13% | Heracles 72% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 91% | BTTS 82% | xG De Graafschap 1.83 / Heracles 3.71 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.011 / def 1.397 | Heracles attack 1.564 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: Heracles (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
3.71
Heracles xG
82%
BTTS
97%
Over 1.5
91%
Over 2.5
80%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Heracles kick off?
De Graafschap vs Heracles is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 18 December 2026 at De Vijverberg.
Where is De Graafschap vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Heracles part of?
De Graafschap vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 15% chance of winning, Heracles a 72% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 82% probability that both De Graafschap and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 91%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Heracles?
Record (2 meetings): De Graafschap 1W | Draws 0 | Heracles 1W.
What form are De Graafschap and Heracles in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Heracles (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates De Graafschap's attack at 1.01x the league average against Heracles's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 3.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-3 carries the highest individual probability at 6.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-4 (5.7%), 2-3 (5.6%). Even combined, the top three scorelines only cover 17% of the total probability — the model sees a wide spread of plausible outcomes rather than one clear shape to the game.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
15%
6.69
13%
7.75
72%
1.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 3
6.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 4
5.7%
Away win
2 – 3
5.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
5.54
3.71
Heracles xG
6.69
15%
Home win
7.75
13%
Draw
1.39
72%
Away win
Goals Markets
97%
Over 1.5
1.03
3%
Under 1.5
33.33
91%
Over 2.5
1.10
9%
Under 2.5
11.11
80%
Over 3.5
1.25
20%
Under 3.5
5.00
65%
Over 4.5
1.54
35%
Under 4.5
2.86
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
82%
BTTS Yes
1.22
18%
BTTS No
5.52
Clean Sheet
2%
40.94
16%
6.22
Win to Nil
0%
–
12%
8.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 2.3 |
| 1 | 0.7 | 2.7 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 4.2 |
| 2 | 0.7 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 3.9 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-3 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 6.1%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for De Graafschap and 3.71 for Heracles, a combined total of 5.54.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Heracles?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
De Graafschap's recent record stands at 16W 10D 12L from 38 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Heracles, meanwhile, have gone 9W 4D 25L across 38 games — 0.82 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Heracles, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours De Graafschap by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Heracles heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, De Graafschap have managed 9W 3D 6L from 18 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Heracles's away record stands at 4W 1D 13L across 18 trips, a 0.72 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
De Graafschap are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.34 scored and 2.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Early Season
Heracles
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Heracles in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 16W 10D 12L in their last 38 games (1.53 PPG), while Heracles have gone 9W 4D 25L in their last 38 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Heracles away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.67 PPG; Heracles away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
De Graafschap
0
Draws
1
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Heracles?
From 2 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 1, Heracles have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2023, when De Graafschap 5-3 Heracles.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — De Graafschap at 78%, Heracles at 61%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for De Graafschap and 83% for Heracles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Heracles?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of De Graafschap's games and 61% of Heracles's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of De Graafschap's matches and 83% of Heracles's.
Do De Graafschap and Heracles tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Heracles in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.